As many as 46,000 votes were supposedly up for grabs when the Canadian Wheat Board director election campaign got underway last month.
But the candidates vying for those votes say the number of votes actually in play is nowhere near that.
“It seem like 90 percent of the people you talk to are very polarized and have already made up their minds long ago,” said Con Johnson of Bracken, Sask., a candidate in District 3.
“The swing vote is going to be very, very small.”
A number of candidates interviewed last week agreed, saying most farmers they encounter during their campaigns have firmly held views on the single desk issue and will vote accordingly.
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As a result, they said, the campaign isn’t about convincing farmers to change their minds, rather it’s about making sure as many of their supporters as possible cast a ballot.
“There’s not a lot of grey out there, it’s pretty black and white,” said Bruce Dalgarno of Newdale, Man., running in District 9. “It’s going to be a question of getting your people to vote.”
Dwayne Anderson, seeking re-election in District 7, agreed.
“The lines in the sand have been drawn,” he said. “The issue is who votes.”
The only candidate with a different take on things is Kyle Korneychuk of Pelly, Sask., running in District 7. He said each side has about 20 percent hard-core supporters, with the remaining 60 percent up for grabs.
“I think the rest used to be in one camp or the other but now they’re looking at both sides,” he said.
The deadline for returning ballots to the election co-ordinator is midnight, Dec. 1. The votes will be counted the following weekend and the results announced Dec. 10.
Everyone agreed the election will turn on the issue of the single desk versus the open market, but a number of candidates identified a couple of other factors.
One is Saskatchewan Wheat Pool’s bid to buy Agricore United, which some say emphasizes the need to have a strong single desk CWB working on farmers’ behalf in an increasingly concentrated grain industry.
Candidates from both sides said Ottawa’s handling of the CWB file in recent months, including putting a gag order on the board, changing the voters list at the last minute, appointing directors for their support for the open market and refusing to promise a plebiscite on the single desk for wheat, has alienated many farmers.
“Farmers are disturbed by some of the things the government has done, and it definitely helps the single desk side,” said Bill Nicholson, incumbent director for District 9.
Here’s a brief summary of the races in the five electoral districts holding a vote this fall:
- District 1 – Incumbent Art Macklin, a single desk supporter, said farmers he hears from are angry with the government’s actions and want to keep the single desk. Challenger Henry Vos has criticized Macklin’s record and said farmers should look to the future, not the past, when they vote.
- District 3 – Incumbent Larry Hill said there is more awareness of the election and the issues than in the past, adding he’s hearing from people he’s never talked before. Challengers Steve Vandervalk and Johnson, both open market supporters, hope having two open market candidates will increase turnout from that side.
- District 5 – Incumbent Allen Oberg, who faces three open market supporters, said he’ll have to win on the first ballot, given the preferential voting system. Vicki Dutton is disappointed there have been no candidate forums or other opportunities to have an informed debate. Kerry Peterson said interest seems high and has been urging farmers not to be afraid of change. Tom Jackson said farmers seem more polarized than ever, and is concerned many will vote based on fear of change.
- District 7 – Anderson said there seems to be apathy among open market supporters compared with the last election and worries about the lack of flexibility on the single desk issue. Korneychuk said the single desk is the top issue, but farmers are also expressing concern about farm income and the government’s handling of the CWB issue.
- District 9 – Nicholson said there’s a lot of interest among farmers and most he talks to want to keep the single desk. Dalgarno said it’s hard to predict the election because candidates mainly hear from their supporters. Derrick Beischer said the single desk side puts out a lot of misinformation to make the CWB look good.
