CHICAGO, Illinois – Consumers are finding some bargains on pork chops
because a surprising abundance of hogs this fall has increased
fourth-quarter pork production.
Some wholesale pork prices are at a three-year low.
The abundance of hogs this fall surprised livestock experts. A
government hog inventory report released in September indicated there
would be fewer hogs now compared with a year ago. But more recent
government pork production data shows hog supplies are up about one
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percent.
“I think we missed some of the expansion in the U.S.,” said Chris Hurt,
an agricultural economist at Purdue University.
Profitable hog prices in 2000 and in early 2001 likely had producers
enlarging herds, industry sources said.
A large supply of all meats is keeping U.S. supermarket pork prices
down. Beef and poultry production are up, and more meat is being
diverted into supermarkets because of a slowdown in beef exports to
Japan and a decline in restaurant business after the Sept. 11 attacks,
industry sources said.
The large supply is hurting American hog producers. Hog prices have
dropped recently and producers are losing about $20 a head on every
animal they sell, economists said.
However, the recent herd expansion should keep hog slaughter and pork
production high.
“I’m not looking for hog slaughter to get below a year ago any time in
the foreseeable future,” said Ron Plain, an ag economist with the
University of Missouri.
Hurt estimates first-quarter 2002 pork production to be up one to two
percent from a year earlier, and second-quarter production to be up
four to five percent.
Those forecasts should be supported by the U.S. Agriculture Department
hog inventory to be released Dec. 28, but unavailable at press time.
Pork production has also increased because producers are getting more
pounds of pork per hog.
For example, government data shows average hog weights now are up three
lb. from a year ago. That produces about six million additional lb. of
pork per week.
Hog weights have increased thanks to mild weather this fall and
widespread use of a new feed additive that speeds weight gains in pigs.
“I would think USDA, when it gives us its next quarterly report on the
28th of December, will make a number of revisions, so the light
slaughter they were forecasting in December may go away,” Plain said.
