U.S. cattle producers leery of expanding

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Published: August 29, 2013

Rebound from drought | Greener pastures and a promising corn crop may encourage growth

Better pastures and a promising corn crop are good news for the United States beef industry, but there is little appetite for herd expansion, says an agricultural economist at the University of Kansas.

“There is reason for some renewed optimism in the cow-calf sector compared to maybe six to nine months ago,” said Glynn Tonsor in an Aug. 13 webinar.

“We are close to thoughts of expansion but in aggregate I don’t think it has occurred,” he said.

Last year’s devastating drought and high input costs dampened on the industry but pastures and crops have improved considerably in this growing season.

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On a national basis compared to last year, when 75 percent of pasture and hay supplies were in jeopardy, this year about a third of the country is in difficulty.

Pastures are actually worse than last year in the western region, where about 10 percent of the beef cows reside in New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, Washington, California and Oregon.

The Great Plains from Kansas to the Canadian border are better than 2012 but pasture conditions are still rated as below the five year average. About 30 percent of the national cow inventory resides in Kansas, Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, as well as Wyoming, North and South Dakota.

Oklahoma, Texas and the corn belt area, where 50 percent of the cows are found, are faring better. The most optimistic region is the southeast because it ended last year in better than normal conditions and has had a good year.

In the markets, calf prices are projected upwards by $10-$12 per hundredweight based on Kansas markets.

The cost of gain is going down somewhat but feedlots are still in trouble.

About the author

Barbara Duckworth

Barbara Duckworth

Barbara Duckworth has covered many livestock shows and conferences across the continent since 1988. Duckworth had graduated from Lethbridge College’s journalism program in 1974, later earning a degree in communications from the University of Calgary. Duckworth won many awards from the Canadian Farm Writers Association, American Agricultural Editors Association, the North American Agricultural Journalists and the International Agriculture Journalists Association.

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