Earlier this year, the best way to start a conversation at a farm meeting was to ask how much canola was going to be planted in the spring.
Now that Statistics Canada has confirmed there is a record crop of canola coming and the smallest wheat crop in nearly 20 years, the next stage of the game is to predict just how much of each is going to be produced.
Last week United Grain Growers released its estimates. Elevator managers across the Prairies were surveyed on how the crops in their districts were growing.
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For canola, UGG is predicting 8.25 million tonnes will be produced from 14.32 million acres. That’s using an average yield of 25.4 bu./acre, nearly three bushels better than the trend yield of 22.5 bu./acre.
Several factors go into UGG’s reasoning for better yields on canola. First, weather. We’ve had another cool year with good moisture. In other words, ideal conditions to grow canola, even on the “marginal” land in Saskatchewan and Alberta which made up much of those extra record acres.
The disease pressure in crops on this marginal land isn’t expected to be as heavy as in crops grown in the traditional canola belt.
For wheat, UGG is estimating average production will be 33 bu./acre on 26.4 million acres for production reaching 23.4 million tonnes, assuming one percent of the seeded acreage won’t be harvested.
Taking out durum acres, UGG is predicting a spring wheat crop of 18.3 million tonnes.
Down the street from UGG headquarters, the weather and crop surveillance department at the Canadian Wheat Board, with help from Environment Canada, is also playing the guessing game.
Using weather data from Environment Canada that tracks heat units and moisture, the board comes up with its own yield scenarios.
For canola, the board is estimating an average yield of 23.3 bu./acre on 14.2 million harvested acres for a crop of 7.5 million tonnes.
The board is estimating fewer canola acres will be harvested and is more conservative on average yields.
CWB research analyst Don Bonner thinks UGG’s canola number may be on the high side, since the weather has gotten hotter since their survey in mid-July.
For wheat, the board is predicting a spring wheat crop of 17 million tonnes from 20.35 million harvested acres. The Prairie average is expected to be 31.1 bu./acre.
All of these estimates are based on the assumption the weather will be normal from here until harvest.
