CARMAN, Man. – If Focus on Sabbatical works, it will take a few years to gather the arsenal needed to take control of prices.
At the earliest, farmers participating in the sabbatical would stop growing grain in 2002-03, said Ken Goudy, who is promoting the concept.
If prices are below farmers’ costs of production in 2002, he hopes to have about 130,000 Canadian and American farmers committed to reducing production by at least eight billion bushels of feed grain, wheat and oilseeds.
That would represent roughly half the farmland in the Prairies and seven Midwest states, Goudy said.
Read Also
Going beyond “Resistant” on crop seed labels
Variety resistance is getting more specific on crop disease pathogens, but that information must be conveyed in a way that actually helps producers make rotation decisions.
He believes it would be equivalent to three times the worst drought in North America, and he said other parts of the world, like Europe and South America, couldn’t make up the shortfall. He is asking farmers for $250 in seed money, which he called a pittance compared to what they spend on inputs.
“You need this more than you need inputs right now.”
Then, when enough farmers have signed up, they’ll set up an “investment company” to buy and sell grain futures contracts.
Members will then contribute $30 to $50 per acre for the company to buy grain futures at the low prices, and sell it after their lack of action in the field drives prices higher. He told farmers they could make more than $200 per acre with the strategy.
“By the time we’re done, that is not out of the question.”
Farmers who buy shares in the investment company will have to agree to pull all their land out of production in the target year.
“It is essential for farmers to convince the market they’re committed and they’re serious.”
Goudy said the strategy will police itself. Neighbors will know who’s involved in the program and would be apt to report any surreptitious plantings.
He said he’s confident the market will be shocked into trading prices higher. He did not consult market experts in developing the concept.
“You don’t have to be a trader to know that’s the response,” he said.
“You just have to have lived and watched the market for a few years.”
