A new Statistics Canada report on the rural economy offers a few insights that may surprise economists and commentators who insist those spaces between the big cities are yesterday country.
The share of manufacturing jobs located in rural areas has been increasing for decades, driven in part by the declining cost of transporting goods, according to a report by rural specialist Ray Bollman.
“Over the last three decades, rural Canada has been increasing its share of total manufacturing employment,” he wrote in the report Factors Driving Canada’s Rural Economy. “If we define competitiveness as increasing one’s market share, then rural Canada is competitive in manufacturing.”
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Bollman suggested a manufacturing presence will be a key factor in determining which rural communities prosper.
“We might expect that successful rural communities in the future will have a manufacturing base,” he said. “Declining transport costs will only open the opportunity for manufacturing jobs. Many other factors such as skills (and) entrepreneurship will decide the final outcome.”
The Statistics Canada rural expert also reported that while immigrants overwhelmingly choose to settle in big cities, some rural areas actually attract more than their share. Nine of the 30 census divisions that attract the highest percentage of immigrants per capita are predominantly rural.
The southern Manitoba area that includes the towns of Winkler, Altona and Morden has the third best record for attracting immigrants.
Bollman said there are special circumstances in that area.
“This region has a Mennonite heritage and one target for their recruiting efforts is German-speaking Mennonites, often in Eastern Europe,” he wrote. The area is attractive to immigrants “because there are jobs. This region has built a successful manufacturing sector that is expanding faster than the local workforce.”
Bollman reported that rural areas are attracting migrants from cities as well – retirees as well as young adults who want to live and raise their children in rural areas that are within a city commute distance.
However, his report also reinforced some conventional wisdom about rural problems. For example, it is difficult to keep young people in rural areas.
“Rural youth say they leave rural areas due to lack of jobs, a lack of post-secondary educational opportunities and a lack of fun.”
Commodity industries like agriculture are not going to be at the core of rural economic revival.
Agriculture has become more reliant on investment and equipment and less a creator of employment, he wrote.
“If rural development is the growth of jobs and the growth of population, then commodity production is not a driver of rural development.”
As well, wheat prices have declined on average $3.05 per tonne (in 1997 dollars) since 1916 and even an increase in prices will not revitalize rural communities.
“Many rural citizens hope for an increase in commodity prices to save their rural community,” he wrote. “It is true that an increase in commodity prices would increase the dollars circulating in rural areas but people, not dollars, constitute rural communities. Regardless of the price of the output, the increasing value of human time will cause the adoption of labour-saving technology and fewer people will be employed in primary industries.”
