With nearly double the normal amount of precipitation in southern North Dakota, the U.S. National Weather Service says conditions are right for major spring flooding in the Red River Valley this spring.
“We’ve got a fair amount of snow and a fair amount of water in the snow, so we’re piling up the stored runoff,” said Mike Lukes, a service hydrologist with the NWS in Grand Forks, N.D. “Sixty past years (of weather data) is showing us that there’s a high probability on the main stem for some major flooding.”
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Lukes defined major flooding as water levels that force communities along the Red River to build dikes or evacuate homes.
The NWS forecast, released Jan. 29, is predicting an 86 percent chance of major flooding of the Red at Fargo. Last year at this time, the NWS computer models were showing a 78 percent chance of major flooding in Fargo, N.D.
“We primarily forecast for locations on the river, primarily urban locations, so the rural (folks) have to take their cue from what we’re predicting for the river near cities,” he said.
The situation is not as dire in Manitoba, said Alf Warkentin, chief flood forecaster for the provincial government.
“When they talk about … 86 percent chance of major flooding in Fargo, it might be pretty alarming but that doesn’t mean that’s going to happen in Manitoba.”
Warkentin explained the depth of snow between Grand Forks and Winnipeg is much less than the amounts around Fargo. Soil moisture levels remain above average in Manitoba, but nowhere near the record levels in the fall of 2008.
“Of course, all of the water from the U.S. has to cross through Manitoba,” Warkentin said. “At this point, it doesn’t look like we’ll be adding very much at all to it.”
Last spring produced one of the worst floods in the history of the Red River Valley. Water covered thousands of acres of farmland and Fargo became a city under siege.
A record amount of snow across North Dakota combined with an unusually wet fall were the primary culprits behind the flooding in 2009.
This year, most of the snowfall has been in southern North Dakota, Lukes said.
“The target area for the storms was south of Fargo, especially the headwaters of the North Dakota Wild Rice River,” he said.
In its Jan. 29 forecast, the NWS pointed to precipitation data from Sept. 1 to the end of January. During that time, nearly 26 centimetres of precipitation fell in the Fargo area, nearly double the normal precipitation of 15 cm for the period.
Snow depths range from 35 to 50 cm in the southern Red River Valley in North Dakota, but are 20 to 35 cm between Fargo and the Canadian border. The snow is not as deep in most places in Manitoba, Warkentin said, but a storm in the middle of January that dumped 20 to 25 cm of snow on several locations across the province has increased the probability of severe flooding in Manitoba this spring.
Before that storm, he added, there was about a 10 percent chance of a repeat of last year’s flooding.
“Now it looks like that’s gone up to about 25 percent,” he said. “It’s a body blow but it’s not a knockout punch.”
