Extensive agricultural flooding in the Red River Valley this spring is now almost guaranteed.
Manitoba’s chief flood forecaster is predicting spring water levels similar to 1979, which is known as the second worst flood in the province’s history.
“A 1979 (level) flood is more than a flood of inconvenience. It is a serious flood that would affect a lot of people,” Alf Warkentin of Manitoba Water Stewardship said during a conference call with media March 16, which followed the release of an update on the Red River flood outlook.
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A March 10 blizzard in North Dakota has increased the severity and likelihood of substantial flooding in the Red River Valley, the release said.
Assuming average weather from now till spring melt, water levels would approximate conditions from 1979 and 1950, years that are tied for the second worst flood in Manitoba after 1997.
Farmers will be affected, said Warkentin, who expects water to cover agricultural land in the extremely flat valley for up to three weeks.
Based on data from previous floods, the floodwaters this spring could be 15 km wide at certain locations south of Winnipeg.
“Considerable flooding in the Letellier area … to the east of St. Adolphe, and a lot of flooding west of the Red River, from St. Jean to Morris, and up the Morris river system,” Warkentin said.
As well, Warkentin expects that Highway 75, the primary route between Winnipeg and the U.S. border, will be closed for three weeks this spring.
At this point it’s hard to say when the waters will peak, he added, because it depends on the weather and the speed of the melt.
However, it is likely that the Red River will crest in Manitoba somewhat later, because the snow in North Dakota must melt and make its way down the Red.
In an effort to ship grain out of the valley before the water arrives, the Canadian Wheat Board announced plans earlier in March to get additional rail cars into the region.
The CWB estimates that 400 farmers may have storage at risk and grain is already being shipped off farms, said Patrick Elazar, a CWB farm business representative for eastern Manitoba.
“Farmers have got their letters and they’re already hauling grain,” Elazar said March 16.
“We’ve started diverting rail shipments to get more rail shipping into the target area. So it’s already happening.”
It’s not necessarily a case of producers having a particular type of storage system, he said. It’s for anyone who has grain at risk.
“It could be bins … or it could be in farmyards that would be cut off if there is flooding.”
