Have you noticed more raindrops falling by your window in the past few years?
A study done at Agriculture Canada’s Lethbridge Research Centre has found that the Prairies get 16 more rainy days a year than it did 75 years ago.
Wole Akinremi, who led the research, said annual precipitation increased by 46 millimetres between 1921 and 1995.
While attending conferences in the mid-1990s, Akinremi repeatedly heard the prediction that the number of heavy rains would increase in the near future. He explored the idea with Lethbridge colleague Sean McGinn and Herb Cutforth of the Semi-Arid Prairie Agricultural Research Centre in Swift Current, Sask.
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Global warming predictions have raised concerns that the extra heat will cause drought in the semi-arid provinces. Akinremi thinks precipitation changes will affect agriculture more than rising temperatures.
“Over the last 100 years, the country’s average temperature has increased by about 1.1 C. On the Prairies, the increase is even higher than the national average. Fortunately, we can see the prairie is not getting drier, which is welcome news.”
Akinremi said the findings have important implications for prairie agriculture.
“If you have a 5 C warmer climate, it will change the type of crops that are grown.”
Akinremi thinks there may have to be a change in the distant future to crops that grow better in warmer, wetter conditions.
He said there is no reason to worry that the extra rain will cause flooding, since most of it will come as light rain, not major downpours.
“The rain is falling more, but most of it is in small events rather than storms.”
Another trend is a decline in snow. Between 1961 and 1995, average annual snowfall has decreased by 33 millimetres. This will also have an impact on agriculture, particularly winter crops.
“The crops that depend on snow covering to act as a buffer from the cold temperatures could suffer if this trend continues,” Akinremi said.
“However, weeds and insects that need that barrier would die too, which could be a benefit for farmers.”
Akinremi plans a follow-up study to look more closely at specific areas of the Prairies to see if trends can be established for individual locations. He said the region is so diverse that what is true for southern Saskatchewan may be false for northern Alberta.
“Globally, the Prairies is a very small region, but it’s very big to us.”
