Prairie farmers should be able to deliver all the wheat and durum they want to in 2007-08, assuming the handling and transportation system does its job.
Canadian Wheat Board chief operating officer Ward Weis-ensel said the board expects to draw wheat stocks down to record low levels this year.
“There are good marketing opportunities out there and we want to take advantage of that by moving as much grain as we possibly can,” he said.
Rail capacity will be the key issue during the next few months, Weisensel said.
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“If more capacity comes available we will sell more, but we can’t sell more than we can deliver.”
The board is concerned that both national railways have been falling behind their rail car unload targets at Vancouver in recent weeks.
Canadian Pacific Railway’s plan calls for unloads of 2,150 cars a week, but actual numbers have been in the range of 1,500 to 1,600 cars.
Canadian National Railway has planned for about 1,500 cars a week but has been around 1,100 to 1,200. Last week CN unloaded only 780 cars at Vancouver.
As a result the board has fallen slightly behind in its wheat export program, expected to total around 10.7 million tonnes.
Wheat shipments to the end of October were around 2.9 million tonnes, down from 3.2 million tonnes at the same time last year, while durum shipments of one million tonnes were ahead of last year’s 700,000 tonnes.
Barley movement was 1.4 million tonnes, up from one million. That strong barley movement, the result of large sales by private grain companies last summer in anticipation of an open market for barley, has also cut into wheat shipments.
“We need to see the railways perform to the plans they indicated,” said Weisensel.
The railways say they shouldn’t be singled out for blame.
Kevin Franchuk of CN said the railway is satisfied with its performance and pointed the finger at terminal operators.
“The terminals in Vancouver have been unable to consistently provide unload levels high enough to sustain a larger allocation program,” he said.
CPR spokesperson Breanne Feigel said while the railway has experienced a slight shortfall in this peak period, everyone in the system shares responsibility.
“Overall CP’s grain system has been operating well,” she said, adding that from Aug. 1 to Oct. 27, CPR’s acceptance of new car orders for grain was only one percent behind last year.
Weisensel said the board has been working hard to capture the high prices of recent weeks and feels confident it has priced as much as possible at the market peaks.
“We’ve seen strong demand throughout this period of high prices.”
Weisensel said there is still a lot of volatility in the marketplace and despite a recent softening of world wheat prices, world supply and demand remain tight.
This year’s crop is good quality, with about 68 percent of the wheat and 80 percent of the durum falling into the top two grades. Protein content is around 13.8 percent.
If rail capacity is available, the board expects to sell about 10.7 million tonnes of wheat and 3.1 million tonnes of durum this year, resulting in ending stocks July 31 of less than five million tonnes. The record low carryout is 5.06 million tonnes in 1989, while the 10-year average is 7.6 million tonnes.
Agriculture Canada’s market analysis division has projected year-end wheat stocks of 4.7 million tonnes, including 700,000 tonnes of durum.
