Manitoba Agriculture has pegged the crop’s target price at 25 cents per pound, much lower than the previous two years
No one likes to finish last but Manitoba Agriculture has ranked oilseed sunflowers as the worst crop to grow in 2024.
The province’s cost of production guide for crops says with yields of 2,000 pounds per acre, the profit from oilseed sunflowers will be negative $160.72 per acre, giving a return on investment of negative 24 percent.
In comparison, the expected profit for soybeans is $40 per acre.
The forecast for oilseed sunflowers is based on input costs, fixed costs, a target yield and estimated price.
If a producer owns their land, has fewer machinery costs and can achieve yields closer to 2,500 lb. per acre, then sunflowers would be profitable. Still, the challenge with oilseed sunflowers in 2024 is price. Manitoba Agriculture has pegged the target price at 25 cents per lb., much lower than the previous two years.
American prices for oilseed sunflowers normally dictate the price in Canada. As of early January, the price at elevators in North Dakota was around US$16-$17 per hundredweight. That’s a drop from $21 per cwt. last spring and a dramatic decline from 2022, when prices were above $30 per cwt.
North Dakota produced a massive crop in 2023 and 2022, so the market is over-supplied.
“It looks like North Dakota and Minnesota will set new record yields (in 2023),” said John Sandbakken, executive director of the National Sunflower Association.
“We’ve had two record crops (back to back).”
Manitoba also had an excellent sunflower crop in 2023. Some growers reported yields as high as 3,500 lb. per acre, well above the historical average of 2,000 to 2,500 lb. per acre.
Overall, yields of sunflowers were better than expected, Manitoba Agriculture said in its final crop report of 2023.
The price of oilseed sunflowers could recover in 2024. But even with strong demand, the massive stocks aren’t going away, Sandbakken said.
“It’s going to take some time. More time than we’re accustomed to.”
The size of stocks will become more evident when the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases an inventory report.On the positive side, there could be an opportunity for confectionary sunflowers in 2024.
“They came into this market year with the tightest stocks I’ve ever seen,” Sandbakken said. “There is a lot of potential for confec seed.”
