WINNIPEG – Special crop production will drop by about 10 percent next year, says Agriculture Canada’s special crops specialist.
The latest supply and demand analysis, released at last week’s Grain World market outlook conference, says farmers will grow 2.31 million tonnes in 1998-99, down from 2.56 million tonnes last year.
The decline is being driven largely by peas, which account for about two-thirds of special crop production.
Market analyst Karen Gray told the conference she expects pea acreage to decline by about 10 percent, as farmers shift acreage to more lucrative oilseeds.
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“Basically it’s more oilseeds and less specials,” she said, although another important factor is that many new farmers who seeded peas in 1997 will be unable to seed peas for a second year in a row.
As a result, pea production will decline by about 14 percent to 1.52 million tonnes.
Effect of outlook
Gray said it’s too early to say whether last week’s pool return outlooks, which forecast lower wheat, durum and barley prices, will have any impact on special crop acreage.
While lower wheat prices were already worked into the special crops forecast, the wheat area could be down even more than earlier anticipated, depending on how producers react.
Among the other major special crops, Gray forecasts an increase in production of mustard seed and canaryseed and a decline in lentils.
