Rural ridings have traditionally been won by Conservative candidates, but it’s uncertain if the same results can be expected this time
Results from last year’s Ontario election illustrate an obvious trend when put on a map. Every seat in and around Toronto was Liberal red and nearly every seat in rural southern Ontario was Tory blue.
The urban-rural fault line may have been clear-cut in the provincial election, but Ontario results could be more complicated in the Oct. 19 federal election, says a Western University political scientist.
“Rural Ontario — that label captures many different groups in many different regions,” said Cristine de Clercy.
“There are some ‘rural’ ridings that may swing away from their traditional party (in this election).”
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The results from the 2011 federal election are similar to the 2014 provincial election in Ontario: a small patch of red and orange in cities and a continuous swath of blue outside urban areas.
De Clercy, who grew up in Saskatchewan, said certain ridings outside of Toronto remain extremely safe for the Tories. Yet, other seats could be in play because people in small cities and towns are frustrated by the state of the economy and the loss of manufacturing jobs.
“There are places like Chatham-Kent-Leamington, which is arguably a rural riding but it has a fair amount of manufacturing,” De Clercy said
Heinz closed its ketchup plant in Leamington last year and hundreds of locals lost their jobs.
“The Leamington area has really been hurt by the out-migration of manufacturing and the (loss) of manufacturing linked to agricultural producers,” De Clercy said.
“Those people may not be happy, and unhappy voters, generally, are tough on incumbents.”
John Wright, senior vice-president with Ipsos, a market research and polling firm, isn’t convinced that rural Ontarians will abandon the Tories.
Ipsos released a poll Sept. 9 that showed the Liberals and Conservatives basically tied in Ontario: 36 percent for the Grits and 35 percent for the Tories.
However, those figures don’t tell the entire story. Polls suggest the urban-rural split is real, and Wright said rural Ontario residents strongly support the Conservatives while urban voters back the Liberals and NDP.
“Nothing is going to change in rural Ontario,” he said.
“(And) in the urban core, Toronto, London and Hamilton, the Tories are nowhere in those cities.”
Wright said the ridings around Toronto, in the 905 area code, will be the battleground in this election.
“In the last election, the Tories won all of those seats. Right now they’re still in play.”
Wright said rural voters continue to support the Conservatives because local politicians are well known and popular. The familiarity transcends larger issues such as the economy and political scandals.
“The candidates, themselves, pull a lot of weight…. They (voters) are very loyal to their members,” Wright said.
“(And) the other two parties haven’t been able to offer a compelling reason for a lot of people to switch their votes. They tend to be social conservatives and … the privacy and ownership of land in those areas means a lot to people.”
De Clercy said the hostile relationship between Ontario premier Kathleen Wynne and prime minister Stephen Harper could influence the final outcome.
“What has made this election quite unusual … has been the personal animosity between Mr. Harper and Ms. Wynne,” De Clercy said.
“I’m interested to know (if) her active campaigning for the federal Liberals is really going to move many votes, or, on the converse side, push votes away from the Liberal party.”
A number of agricultural groups have been highly critical of the Wynne government, including Grain Farmers of Ontario.
Earlier this year, the farm group said the Ontario government’s new pesticide regulations, which restrict the use of neonicotinoid seed treatments in corn and soybeans, represents an “attack” on modern agriculture.
De Clercy said some Ontario producers may dislike Wynne, but that doesn’t mean that every farmer in the province will vote Conservative Oct. 19.
“The agriculture community spans several different groups,” she said.
“It’s a bit simplistic to argue that the whole agricultural community in Ontario is deeply, deeply anti-Kathleen Wynne and as a consequence of that will be deeply against … anyone who she endorses.”
robert.arnason@producer.com
