The Canadian Wheat Board came out with mildly encouraging news last week for farmers lucky enough to take off top-quality durum this summer.
The wheat board’s outlook for higher quality, higher protein durum jumped $7 to $10 per tonne from last month’s projections.
The pool return outlook for No. 1 durum with 13 percent protein is now $205 to $235 per tonne at port position.
That’s a little better than last year’s estimated returns of $206 per tonne for No. 1 durum, 13 percent protein.
Bad weather around the world has done much to improve market prospects for durum since spring.
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“There’s a lot more medium to lower quality (durum) around,” said analyst Don Bonner.
Six months ago, the board was projecting returns of $161 to $191 per tonne for No. 1, 13 percent durum at port.
Bonner said a few weeks of rain in Australia’s prime durum region is the latest cause for some sunshine in the board’s outlook.
Australian farmers have increased their durum acres substantially during the past few years, said Bonner. This year, they doubled the size of their durum crop from last year. Aussie farmers have been harvesting durum in November, but the rain has hurt quality.
In the United States, prices for higher quality durum have been rising, said Bonner. That’s because the U.S. durum crop was also damaged by wet weather.
An attractive revenue insurance program encouraged U.S. farmers to grow durum, but the wet planting and harvest conditions cut yields and quality.
“A lot of their durum is not going to be of milling quality.”
In Canada, durum quality dropped from last year too. A “good percentage” still is grading No. 1 and 2, said Bonner. But he acknowledged the wheat board has fewer supplies of high quality, high protein durum, compared to last year.
Overall, world supplies of durum are still ample, said Bonner.
Analysts will now be watching the weather in North Africa, the world’s largest importing region for durum.
Farmers there have fairly good conditions for seeding, said Bonner. But weather conditions from February through April will determine the crop’s yield and quality, and ultimately, the demand for durum from other countries into the 2000-2001 crop year.
