Climate change will force policies on management and sustainability as the need for a secure water supply grows
Feeding 9.6 billion people within 30 years means addressing climate change and its effect on water availability, said the head of the Saskatoon-based Global Institute for Food Security at the recent Grow Canada conference in Calgary.
“The history of agriculture is the history of technological innovation,” said Maurice Moloney.
Food shortages and poverty could lead to starvation, a mass exodus of refugees and political instability.
“We are talking about a massive challenge before us, and that massive challenge is if we don’t meet it, (it) will have consequences around the world,” he said.
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The future of crop production in Canada depends on access to the latest technology to increase yields and productivity, but more importantly, a sustainable water supply is critical. A recent base line study by the World Wildlife Fund found that many of the Canada’s watersheds are in trouble.
“We are observing a high degree of stress in many of our watersheds already, and in some cases that can reduce our ability to adapt to future changes,” said James Snider, vice-president of the fresh water program at the World Wildlife Fund.
Many of Canada’s watersheds do not meet the minimum requirement to support aquatic life, including fish. There are also questions over quantity and quality.
The South Saskatchewan River basin and the Great Lakes watershed are among those at risk because of overuse, climate change and pollution from nearby cities and nutrient runoff.
The WWF wants all water bodies in Canada to be in good ecological health by 2025. It has offered to work with sectors, including agriculture, to improve the state of watersheds.
Water shortages may force countries to abandon their policies to be food self-sufficient, said Brent Paterson, who used to work with Alberta Agriculture’s irrigation branch but now heads Paterson Earth and Water Consulting.
He said he has seen a worldwide problem with a growing population, shrinking land base and increased competition for limited water.
Sixty percent of the world’s food is produced on rain-fed agriculture, while irrigation makes up 20 percent of the world’s farmland base and produces 40 percent of the world’s food supply. Eighty percent of food requirements may have to come from irrigation development in the future.
He expects water demand to increase by 55 percent, mainly in developing countries. Nearly half the global population will eventually live in watersheds under severe stress, which leads to difficult decisions about allocation.
“During water shortages, irrigation water is the first to be reallocated to meet other priorities,” Paterson said.
The Prairies may have the potential to feed the world because farmers have shown an ability to adapt new technology and manage re-sources.
However, climate change could result in warmer and drier weather, so the growing season will lengthen with the possibility of more diverse crops.
Available land for agriculture may expand, so precipitation or irrigation will be critically important, he said.
Levels of precipitation will not change much, but more of it may come in winter, so the runoff season could be altered. That could force discussions about water management and sustainability.
“Environmental sustainability must become as important to Canada’s agriculture industry as productivity and yield and can be used as a key marketing strategy as we move forward,” said Paterson.
These discussions are already happening in California, where severe drought for the last four years has forced unprecedented compromises.
Forty-four percent of California’s 9.6 million acres of irrigated farmland received zero surface water allocations in 2015, said Ryan Yates, director of congressional relations for the American Farm Bureau Federation.
California grows more than half of the United States’ fresh produce on 78,000 farms. The industry covers 400 crops and is worth $14 billion annually. About 450,000 jobs are directly related to agriculture.
“If we don’t have water, we won’t be able to do what we do best and that is grow crops,” he said.
More than 692,000 acres of farmland in the state were fallowed last year because of drought. Vineyards, orchards and permanent crops have been taken out.
The multi-year drought has caused significant changes to rural life, the ecology and aquifers. Runoff comes from the Sierra Nevada mountain range, but the snow pack has been greatly reduced.
A lack of surface flows is forcing farmers to look at groundwater pumping, which further drains aquifers.
Groundwater wells have run dry and unemployment among farm workers in the region has risen substantially.
“Nobody wants those kind of future challenges,” Paterson said.
barbara.duckworth@producer.com
