OTTAWA – For weary Canadian farmers who see the last few years as one long string of trade battles with the United States, Alberta senator Dan Hays has some unsettling advice.
They should prepare for two years of even more cross-border tension.
“I would say the focus in the U.S. is sharper now because rural constituents seem to be more upset,” Hays said last week after returning from a trip to Washington, D.C., with members of the Canadian Senate agriculture committee.
And with the next presidential vote scheduled for the end of next year, political wrangling between the Democratic-controlled White House and the Republican-controlled Congress will increase, he said.
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Complaints about Canada often will be grist for the political mill in the Washington tug-of-war, he said.
“That’s my reading of it,” said Hays. “I think we can expect lots of disputes and be willing to defend ourselves aggressively.”
Side with lobbyists
One result of the fight for the White House will be a competition to do the bidding of lobbyists who say their sectors are being hurt by foreign actions.
Canada will be a particular target.
“They are targeting the (Canadian) Wheat Board, supply management, sugar, whatever,” said Hays. “The Crow was on the top of their list but when we said it was being abolished, the wheat board moved to the top. If it wasn’t that, it would be something else.”
He said that in a charged political environment, the White House will be less able or willing to challenge protectionism or sabre-rattling flowing out of Congress. “It will make the (presidential) administration less of a friend for us in dealings with complaints coming out of Congress, if the administration ever was a friend.”
He said briefings received in Washington during the visit suggest the new five-year U.S. farm bill will look a lot like the present farm bill.
There will be commodity-specific deficiency payments and an aggressive export subsidy program.
“I think the Export Enhancement Program is solid,” said Hays. “There will be fewer resources, of course, but the programs will continue.”
What the farm lobby loses in federal funding, it likely will make up in attitude, he said.
“They will be aggressive and we clearly have some missionary work to do on the wheat board,” said Hays. “I think we can win that one. But they will then just move on to another issue.”
