It’s a case of so far, so good.
In its spring forecast, which does not include last week’s snowfall, the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration predicted low to moderate drought risk for most of the southern Prairies, despite a warm, dry winter and a lower than normal snow pack.
“The cold conditions in January and February didn’t cause the snow pack to evaporate, so that definitely helped,” said Ted O’Brien, an agroclimate specialist with the PFRA in Regina.
The reduced mountain snow pack means most river basin systems across the Prairies will have low water levels for spring runoff. Areas such as northeastern Alberta and northwest Saskatchewan are at risk for drought and water shortages this spring. Other areas at risk are Alberta’s High Level and Peace River regions, which can expect water supply shortages over the next three months.
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But despite the expected low runoff and below normal winter precipitation, many areas on the Prairies are expected to have adequate soil moisture heading into spring seeding.
“We’re seeing maybe 10 percent of farms having the driest year in 10 years, but a lot of farms are now heading into a recovery position in terms of moisture,” said O’Brien. “We need some timely rains so recovery can take place.”
However, areas around North Battleford extending north and west into Alberta are still at a high risk for drought. These areas had much below normal winter precipitation and consecutive years of drought.
“You’re not going to move out of a drought instantly. Runoff is below normal. Dugouts are dry. These areas are going to remain high risk unless there is significant rainfall.”
Areas in southern Alberta and southeastern Manitoba are in moderate drought risk categories, while central Alberta and Saskatchewan are now considered to be recovering.
Typically, summers following an El Nino winter have above-average precipitation, which could ease the strain.
“There is reason for optimism,” said O’Brien. “Precipitation has already substantially improved in most areas.”
