BRANDON, Man. — Even with good weather conditions, it will take a couple of years for North America to replenish stocks of high-protein wheat and soybeans, says an analyst with Manitoba Agriculture.
“If there is to be even a partial restocking of the depleted supplies of high-quality grain and oilseeds, weather will be crucial in 1994-95,” Carol Nachtigall told the Manitoba agricultural outlook conference here.
That means the premiums for those crops could continue into the next crop year. Meanwhile, the world has big supplies of lower quality wheat and key importers such as China and Russia have reduced their purchases.
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Nachtigall said weather forecasters remain concerned about the potential for spring floods in the American Midwest because the soils there are saturated from last summer’s floods. As well, heavy rains and flooding in Europe during the past two months might have damaged crop prospects.
She estimated initial wheat and durum prices for the coming year will be similar to this year. She expects No. 1 CWRS will be priced in the $135 to $145 range, while Canada Feed prices will be in the $90 to $95 per tonne level.
Price may weaken
Nachtigall predicted the premium for top-grade durum over hard red spring wheat will weaken, but should still be worth an extra $5 to $10 per tonne.
Nachtigall said provided the European Community doesn’t flood the world market with excess barley supplies, coarse grain prices will track production in the U.S. Any Canadian feed barley price declines are likely to be small, her outlook said.
Nachtigall said flax prices should see little change in the coming year, while canola prices should fall from current levels to between $309 and $325 per tonne over the next year.
