A Canadian Grain Commission researcher is concerned about low protein levels in what is expected to be the Prairie’s largest durum crop ever.
Phil Williams, who conducts the commission’s annual harvest survey, said average protein levels in durum appear to be around 12.4 percent.
“We’re not very happy with that,” said Williams. “It’s difficult to sell low-protein durum.”
A spokesperson for the Canadian Wheat Board would not comment on the 1998 durum protein levels. Jim Pietryk said results from the harvest survey are preliminary.
Not all samples are in yet, Williams said, but he does not expect the average protein level to change much.
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Last year, average levels were around 12.5 percent, said Williams. The industry likes to see average levels around 13 percent.
From 1986 to 1995, average protein content across all milling grades of durum was 13.1 percent, according to grain commission statistics.
Williams said he doesn’t understand why protein levels would be low this year: “It’s been a hot, dry year, and it’s been reflected in an increase in protein in the red spring (wheats)” grown in the same areas. He thinks high-yielding varieties licensed in 1986 like Kyle, Plenty and Sceptre might be at the root of the problem.
New varieties expected in the next couple of years should help raise average protein levels, Williams said.
Millers who buy durum to make semolina prefer higher protein levels in raw durum because they want 12 percent protein in the semolina, but protein is lost during milling, said Williams.
Meet customer’s needs
He noted the Canadian Grain Commission can easily segregate higher protein durum at terminals if the Canadian Wheat Board wants to sell it to certain clients.
Pietryk said higher protein levels are generally preferable to lower protein, but noted customers’ willingness to pay more for high protein changes from year to year.
“Certain customers would be more sensitive to specific protein levels than other customers, so it’s hard to generalize that all customers want higher protein.”
This year, customers seem to be willing to pay more for protein than usual, Pietryk said.
Wheat board price projections for No. 1 durum with 13 percent protein have stayed at $182 to $212 per tonne since they were first announced this spring.
Meanwhile, the pool return outlook for standard protein No. 1 durum has fallen to $169-$199 per tonne.
Initial payments for No. 1 durum with 14 percent protein are $155 per tonne, $20 higher than initial payments for regular No. 1 durum.
Last year, the spread in initial payments between the higher and lower protein durum was $18 per tonne.
There will be lots of competition for Canada’s crop. The world is expected to have its second largest durum crop ever at 32 million tonnes, versus 26.4 million tonnes last year. Farmers in the United States, Australia, Syria and Mexico stepped up their durum production.
Canadian farmers are expected to pull 5.78 million tonnes off their fields, compared to 4.35 million tonnes last year. Average yields are expected to be 29.7 bushels per acre, slightly higher than last year.
Agriculture Canada market analysts expect durum exports to drop to 3.8 million tonnes from last year’s record exports of 4.2 million tonnes because of larger supplies and reduced demand.
While only 700,000 tonnes of durum are left in the system from last year’s crop, Agriculture Canada expects next year’s carryover to be around 1.6 million tonnes.
