For Brian Tischler, stalled World Trade Organization talks are not some theoretical discussion happening in far away Geneva.
The 40-year-old canola and grain farmer from Mannville, Alta., figures until there is a resolution to the agricultural discussions, his ability to sell product into world markets will be impaired and the price he receives will be less than it should be.
“We really need an agreement and there is nothing theoretical about it,” he said. “Without an end to the subsidies and the trade barriers, there isn’t real price discovery.”
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There is good news and bad news for Tischler from the WTO front lines.
The bad news is that since talks broke down in Cancun, Mexico, in September, there has been little progress in restarting them. Trade experts and WTO negotiators predict the end of talks may be as late as 2007 and not 2004 as planned.
Elections in the United States and expansion of the European Union in 2004 to 25 countries from 15 will leave both trade giants inward-focused and unwilling to make WTO concessions.
“The mood in the room has been positive but it has been very cautious and very slow,” Canadian WTO ambassador Sergio Marchi said from Geneva.
“However, we have missed deadlines and there is no doubt there must be more flexibility at the table if we are to move.”
Added Steve Verheul, Canada’s chief agriculture negotiator: “There really has not been a negotiating mood and I would say that for the short term, prospects are bleak for progress.”
The good news for farmers like Tischler is that most players also think there will be a trade deal eventually, and that the talks will relaunch on the basis of a text tabled in Cancun that exporters consider at least the right direction.
“I really don’t think it will be all that difficult to get a deal on agriculture once they get at it again,” International Federation of Agricultural Producers general secretary David King said from Paris. “I think they are close.”
The proposal now on the table would lead to sharp cuts in domestic support, an increase in market access by reducing tariffs and expanding import quotas and a commitment to phase out export subsidies.
It was never debated or approved in Cancun but negotiators say it will be the new starting point.
“We would hope to make changes to it but there is general agreement that that is what is on the table,” Verheul said.
“It’s clear that’s where we start,” said Tim Groser, New Zealand’s WTO agriculture negotiator in Geneva.
“And I do not think failure will happen. We have had eight rounds of multilateral trade negotiations and not one of them has failed to be concluded successfully.”
For Canada’s supply managed sector, that prospect is a mixed blessing. They see the Cancun text as a threat to their border protection but also think a slower pace will give them and the Canadian government time to convince more countries that Canada’s protected sectors need not be sacrificed to achieve trade expansion.
In Mannville, Tischler is impatient. Every year of delay in getting a new deal is dollars out of his pocket.
“I think current subsidies and market distortions suppress prices by at least 10 percent,” he said.
“At $300 a tonne, that’s $30 a tonne. That’s a lot of money.”
