Analysts can’t identify a single reason for slightly lower beef consumption this year.
There are several factors at work – a weakening American economy, a cool spring, and foot-and-mouth disease and bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreaks in Europe.
Or it may be just a softening in reaction to record high beef prices, said Canfax analyst Anne Dunford.
“It’s been phenomenal. We’ve had record prices,” said Dunford of retail meat prices.
Canada’s average retail beef price in January and February was 17 percent higher than the same period in 2000.
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“When it will really tell the tale is this summer when we move into larger supplies and how do consumers respond to that,” Dunford said.
Glenn Brand, director of marketing with the Beef Information Centre in Calgary, said while per capita consumption is down three percent, retail prices are up six percent, for an overall gain of three percent.
“We’ve sold less product, but sold it at higher prices. It’s been a strong year in both retail and food service industry.”
Fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values peaked in early April but have fallen since then.
Some American analysts speculated consumers might step back from beef after months of news reports, first about BSE in Europe and then about foot-and-mouth disease in Britain. But surveys and anecdotal evidence is that Europe’s disease problems don’t seem to have affected beef consumption in North America.
Feedback from major Canadian retailers show few people are turning away from beef for food safety reasons.
A recent survey by the United States National Cattlemen’s Beef Association shows consumers’ confidence in the safety of American beef has increased even with news of BSE and foot-and-mouth disease.
Diets or nutritional concerns are likely to be reasons given by men and women who say they are eating less beef, the survey said.
The Beef Information Centre is planning a survey that will ask Canadian consumers about their understanding of food safety.
Steve Kay of Cattle Buyers Weekly in California said beef demand in the first quarter of this year is down from last year, although not substantially.
While disease in Europe is a “cloud” over the industry, he points to massive layoffs in California’s high tech sector and high energy costs as more likely reasons for lower beef demand.
