RED DEER — Western Canadians can expect a warm summer with more precipitation as La Nina emerges.
“It already looks like it is going to be a pretty good growing season because of La Nina,” said Art Douglas, climatologist and professor emeritus from Creighton University in the United States.
El Nino cycles warm equatorial waters and the current trend has influenced weather patterns since 2014. This extended El Nino caused drought in Australia and dryness in the Pacific Northwest.
That warm, dry weather contributed to major forest fires in that region extending into British Columbia and Alberta, he said at the Alberta Beef Industry Conference held in Red Deer March 4-6.
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Climatologists are monitoring the shift from El Nino to La Nina as ocean water cools along the Pacific coasts and moving up to the equator. Atlantic Ocean temperatures take about eight months to change.
“This is excellent news for Australia. Australia is wet when we have La Nina. We haven’t had a La Nina since 2013, which explains why we had such a long drought,” he said.
A shift towards La Nina has already affected North and South America and Africa.
He is predicting more dryness in California and the southwestern states, spreading up toward Kansas. Serious drought is more likely for 2021 as La Nina conditions take hold. The last major drought was 2012-13.
Mexico will be relatively wet.
In South America, Brazil has turned wetter with good crop expectations but Argentina has dried up and crops could be disappointing.
Overall, Australia is looking forward to improved grazing but recovery will be slow due to extended drought.
His forecast for March to September indicates Western Canada could be warmer by about 1-1.5 C above normal in the spring. Northern and Eastern Canada could be drier than normal but eastern B.C., Alberta, southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba can expect above normal precipitation to support better planting and grazing conditions.
This summer, Western Canada appears likely to see warm air coming in from the Pacific with enough fronts flowing in to encourage normal to slightly above normal precipitation.
“This is very consistent with going into LaNina, a warm but wet summer for Western Canada,” he said.
Douglas warned more storms are possible.
“If you have a warm summer and you have a good supply of moisture that gives you a lot better chance of severe hail,” he said.
The U.S. growing regions will be hot and that warmth will extend into the Canadian prairie provinces with temperatures about two degrees above normal.
La Nina tends to last longer than El Nino, which is normally around for about 12-16 months.
“Whatever you get this year, you are likely to get next summer because that LaNina will last about two years,” he said.
