The Canadian Wheat Board’s monthly pool return outlook isn’t a matter of opinion or the product of a scientific formula.
It’s the product of a rigorous analysis of the world grain market, combined with what the board – and only the board – knows about its own sales program.
“We try to primarily focus on global fundamentals and how those will impact prices,” said wheat board market analyst Peter Watts.
“That is the core of the analysis and forecast.”
The first step in developing the PRO is to gather information about weather, grain sales and markets.
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The board’s analysts look at questions like: who is buying grain and who isn’t? What has the weather been like in exporting and importing countries? What are other forecasters saying about price trends? How might export subsidies affect demand and price?
Information network
The information is gathered from grain trade sources around the world, news reports, customers and the board’s own intelligence network.
The board keeps tabs throughout the growing season on the yield and quality of crops in Canada and abroad, particularly in major exporting and importing countries, and develops projections of trade and ending stocks.
The price indicators are combined with what the board knows about its own sales program, taking into account such things as quality, protein, markets, foreign exchange rates and marketing costs.
