Saskatchewan’s dismal farm income picture is about to get worse and stay that way for a number of years, according to Agriculture Canada farm income projections.
The federal department is predicting a realized net farm income of $96 million for 1999 in Saskatchewan, followed by a boost to almost $300 million in 2000 and then a collapse to losses of $318 million, $186 million and $161 million during the following three years.
The five year, 1994-98 average realized net farm income for Saskatchewan was $740 million, boosted by several years of strong grain prices.
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Last week, Saskatchewan minister Dwain Lingenfelter used the Agriculture Canada projections to argue unsuccessfully for more federal aid to the province.
“If you look at the net farm income proposed by the federal government going out three or four years, the problem only gets worse,” he said after walking out of a federal-provincial ministers’ meeting.
However, an Ag Canada official said those numbers will be revised upward later this year, when estimates are made on how much government support will be sent to farmers.
“We have not included an estimate of disaster funding after 2000,” Troy Hennigar said in a Jan. 17 interview. “That is part of the reason Saskatchewan’s numbers fall so sharply. We also project continuing declines in grain and oilseed prices.”
Meanwhile, Alberta’s realized net income will remain well below its 1994-98 average at least through 2002, according to the projections.
“The Alberta livestock sector shows continuing increases but it also will be affected by the weak grain prices,” said Hennigar.
Alberta average down
Compared to a five-year average $630 million, Alberta realized net farm income fell to $349 million last year, according to Ag Canada. It is projected to bounce back above the average this year before falling again to under $400 million in 2001.
Manitoba’s projected realized net farm income will remain close to or above the four-year 1990s’ average through the next four years.
The federal department published its projections Jan. 14, the day federal and provincial agriculture ministers met in Ottawa to wrestle with the dilemma of how to design a new two-year program for farm income disaster assistance.
Manitoba minister Rosann Wowchuk said the federal projections had a sobering effect on the ministers’ meeting, even if they did not convince other provinces and Ottawa to make more money available to the West.
“I think the other (ministers) recognized that there is a real income difficulty in Western Canada,” she said in a Jan. 14 interview. “Many of the other ministers said they would like to help but there just isn’t enough money in the pot right now.”
– Wilson
