Bruce Burnett has probably seen more of this year’s prairie grain crop than anyone.
By the time he reached Saskatoon Aug. 6, the Canadian Wheat Board’s crop and weather analyst had driven across about three quarters of the prairie grain belt, wading into dozens of fields to count kernels and prepare yield estimates.
His verdict?
“The best you’ll be looking at prairie-wide is an average crop, probably below average,” he said. Interviews with crop analysts across the prairies confirmed that assessment.
Experts caution the only number that counts is what ends up in the bin, but right now it looks like western farmers will produce about 45 million tonnes of the major grains, oilseeds and special crops this year.
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That’s down sharply from last year’s excellent 55 million tonne crop, and slightly below the long-term average of 46 million tonnes (for the 10 years ending in 1995.)
At the beginning of July, hopes were high for a bumper crop, but several weeks of unrelenting hot, dry weather shrivelled those hopes, along with the crops.
Just ask George Lawrence of Hanley, Sask., who saw a meagre 10 millimetres (0.4 inches) of rain fall on his crops during July.
“The wheat was looking pretty nice,” he said wistfully. “It was headed out, all nice and even. Then it just started running out of moisture and the last two weeks it really took a licking.”
Now Lawrence is looking at a yield of 10 or 15 bushels an acre on his stubble and isn’t expecting very good canola yields. While his summerfallow wheat looks good, it’s a disappointing year, especially coming on the heels of his best crop ever last year.
“Now I just hope we don’t get a whole pile of rain when it’s all swathed,” he said with a laugh.
The Canadian Wheat Board is projecting a wheat crop of 17.7 million tonnes, about 10 percent below average and down from 24.8 million last year.) Durum output will be 3.9 million tonnes (4.7 last year) and barley 12.7 million (15).
Canola industry officials project a 5.9 million tonne crop (5), with a 15 percent drop in yields balanced off by higher acreage.
Farmers aren’t the only ones who have watched with concern as the crop deteriorated. Grain companies will have less grain to handle, the railways, particularly CP Rail in the southern prairies, will have less to haul and grain merchants will have less to sell.
However, high carryover stocks from last year will help cushion the impact.
“For grain handlers and shippers it doesn’t really matter whether it’s this year’s harvest or last year’s,” said United Grain Growers chief executive officer Brian Hayward.
If there’s a bright side to this year’s crop story, it’s quality, at least for wheat. Protein levels should be high and an early harvest usually means lots of No. 1 and 2 CW red spring wheat.
Unfortunately, that same high protein is bad for malting barley, while early maturity could mean low bushel weights, which is bad for feed barley. Meanwhile, canola producers, are being warned that cutting their crop during hot weather can result in high chlorophyll levels.
Kevin Miller, who grows wheat, durum and canola just west of Saskatoon, has adopted a fatalistic attitude towards this year’s turn of events.
“We’re in Saskatchewan, we’re in dryland farming and the last four or five years we’ve had tremendous crops,” he said. “We can’t complain too much.”
