SASKATOON – All things considered, it hasn’t been such a bad a year for grain movement.
The Grain Transportation Agency says that by the end of the crop year July 31, a little over 32 million tonnes of grain will have been shipped under Western Grain Transportation Act subsidies.
That’s actually more than was moved the previous year, when shipments of WGTA grain totalled 31.4 million tonnes (including all the major grains, oilseeds and special crops shipped by rail in Western Canada).
“The bottom line is that in terms of overall movement, it will not be all that bad,” said Terry Chabluk, acting co-ordinator of transportation planning for the GTA.
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Given the seemingly endless series of problems that plagued the handling and transportation system during 1993-94, from rail car shortages to severe winter weather to labor strife, the system performed admirably.
However Chabluk hastened to add he didn’t want to downplay the various glitches that afflicted the system.
“Certainly in terms of the timing, there were demands for movement which were not met on a timely basis,” he said. “There were vessels that sat and waited and there was demurrage paid and there were customers unhappy about the timing of deliveries relative to contractual obligations.”
As of July 3, with one month left in the crop year, exports of the six major grains and oilseeds were 24.4 million tonnes, about one million tonnes ahead of the previous year. Wheat exports are down, but durum, barley and canola are all up substantially.
There’s no question more grain could have been shipped if not for all the logistical problems, although Chabluk said he couldn’t estimate what that potential volume might have been.
The most WGTA grain ever shipped in a year is 36.4 million tonnes in 1991-92. Chabluk said while it’s possible to develop a theoretical capacity for the grain handling and transportation system, assuming straight grades, unlimited sales and perfectly timed vessel arrivals, such a number might not mean very much.
“There are always the practical and real difficulties you have to deal with,” he said.
That was certainly the case in 1993-94, as prairie farmers grew an unusual mix of grain and grades that placed new demands on grain merchants and shippers.
Chabluk said there are several lessons to be learned from this year’s experience:
- With the new mix of crops being grown, it’s more important than ever to have accurate forecasts of transportation demand.
- There is a clear trend towards more demand for transportation in the immediate post-harvest period, particularly for special crops at Thunder Bay, but also for other commodities.
- The demand for transportation must be analyzed in the context of the “transportation corridors” that will be used. For example, moving 32 million tonnes with four million tonnes destined to the U.S. requires much more capacity and planning than 32 million with just one million tonnes going south.
Chabluk said the system will face tough challenges this fall, given the record acreage of special crops and canola.
“We’re going to have to squeeze that much more special crop product through the allotted time frame (between harvest and freeze-up) at Thunder Bay,” he said. “That will be more difficult to deal with this year.”
