SASKATOON – For the first time in three years, and only the second time since 1987-88, exports of the major grains and oilseeds will exceed 30 million tonnes this crop year.
The Canadian Wheat Board expects to ship about 22 million tonnes of wheat and durum and four million tonnes of barley by the end of July, for a total of 26 million tonnes.
Canola exports are expected to hit a record 4.1 million tonnes, while sales of flaxseed, oats and rye are on a pace to reach around 1.7 million tonnes.
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That all adds up to about 31.8 million tonnes, putting exports of the so-called six major grains 15 percent ahead of last year and well above the five-year average of 27.7 million tonnes.
If prairie farmers want to thank someone for the increased sales this year, they could start by looking Down Under.
“The drought situation in Australia had a fairly major impact,” said CWB information officer Deborah Harri. “It opened up a lot of opportunities for us.”
Australia’s exports this year will be down about four million tonnes for wheat and two million tonnes for barley.
The board has assured farmers it will take all the wheat and barley they want to deliver this crop year. The deadline for signing CWB delivery contracts was May 31.
Less grain in storage
With freight rates increasing sharply next year, prairie farmers won’t want to have much grain in their bins come Aug. 1.
Market analysts say carryover stocks of wheat will be less than half of last year’s 11.1 million tonnes.
Durum carryover is expected to be up substantially at around two million tonnes, despite a strong export program.
“It was just a much bigger pile of durum to market in the 1994-95 crop year, but we’ve had good sales and we’ve been able to move a record volume,” said Harri. Durum exports are expected to be about 3.8 million tonnes; the old record was 3.2 million tonnes in 1991-92.
The barley carryover could be down by half to its lowest level in a decade, while canola stocks on Aug. 1 will likely be a low 400,000 tonnes.
With a low carryover and a smaller crop, the wheat board says its export program will be scaled back in 1995-96.
That’s not necessarily bad news, Harri said, since the board will be able to concentrate its sales efforts in unsubsidized, commercial markets that will provide a higher return for farmers.
