SASKATOON – The separatist-federalist tug-of-war for the hearts and votes of Quebec farmers got serious last week as the Quebec government issued studies assuring farmers that life after sovereignty would be better.
Federal agriculture minister Ralph Goodale immediately branded the studies naive, presumptuous and wrong.
He warned Quebec farmers they would lose access to the Canadian dairy market, despite what the Quebec government and its hired economists say.
The Canadian dairy supply management system could not, under trade rules, extend over national boundaries to a sovereign Quebec. Dairy farmers in the rest of Canada would gear up production to fill the share now taken by Quebec.
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“Dairy farmers, whether from Quebec or the rest of Canada, understand very well that if Quebec were to separate, supply management would continue in Canada with Canadian dairy farmers supplying Canadian needs,” he said. “They also understand that … Quebec has enjoyed a very beneficial position under the … national supply management system.”
He said there is no possibility a separate Quebec could create its own dairy supply management system because it would violate trade rules and would not receive the approval of American government, required under the terms of the North American free trade agreement.
Goodale also insisted that under trade deals, an independent Quebec could not threaten to quit buying Canadian or other products if they are not allowed to keep their access to the Canadian dairy market.
Goodale’s comments followed the Aug. 17 release of a series of studies commissioned by the Quebec government to analyze the future of Quebec agriculture after separation.
The studies concluded that Quebec farmers now get short-changed by Canada because Quebec agriculture received just $418 million from Ottawa in 1991-92 while its proper share would have been $642 million, based on its relative share of Canadian agricultural production.
The studies, by Quebec academics, said that since Quebec now provides 48 percent of the Canadian processing milk supplies, Canadian farmers would not be able to gear up production quickly to fill the gap.
Remain in system
Therefore, Canada will want Quebec to stay in the national supply management system, they argued.
Likewise, Quebec is too important a market for other Canadian food products for Canada to jeopardize it by severing trade relations, the reports argued.
And in an independent Quebec with the active support of the government, agriculture would be an economic growth centre.
These arguments will be the core of the Quebec rural campaign as the province moves toward an expected Oct. 30 referendum on sovereignty.
Goodale made it clear he will fight back, arguing that Quebec’s agricultural benefit from Confederation cannot be measured only in dollars spent. The benefits to Quebec farmers of the protected supply management system also must be calculated, he said.
