World milk production is expected to grow by 35 percent by 2030, even as 14 million farming operations leave the business
Fourteen million dairy farms will cease production around the world by 2030, according to global outlook predictions.
However, world milk production is expected to grow by an average 35 percent internationally by that time to supply demand from a population estimated to be 8.7 billion people.
Dairy experts suggest the current top three dairy-exporting regions in the world will remain as leaders until 2030, but there could be surprises.
At the moment, the European Union, New Zealand and the United States are the top three dairy-exporting regions in the world.
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However, several other countries could expand and become bigger exporters.
Global demand for dairy is set to increase in line with the increase in population and rising incomes. However, the rate of increase is predicted to be much slower than experienced during the past 10 years.
The dairy industry serves a world population of about seven billion consumers. By 2030, the global population is expected to grow by 16 percent to 8.7 billion, potentially creating about 1.7 billion more dairy consumers.
The world export market for dairy products totalled US$27.5 billion in 2017, influenced by New Zealand, which supplied 20.4 percent of the exports.
The European Union said it could supply almost 35 percent of global demand by 2030 by focusing more on value-added products such as organic products or those with protected geographical indications.
EU exports of cheese, butter, skimmed milk powder, whole milk powder and whey powder are expected to grow on average by about 330,000 tonnes of milk equivalent per year.
As for the EU market, almost 900,000 tonnes of additional milk per year would be needed to satisfy its growth for traditional dairy products, which are mainly cheese.
By contrast, European liquid milk consumption is expected to continue to decline.
EU milk production should experience a modest increase from 2018 to 2030 at 0.8 percent per year on average. Production is estimated at 167 million tonnes in 2018, and is projected to reach 182 million tonnes by 2030.
Milk yield should also increase by 2030, 17 percent above the level of 2017. However, the increase will come at a slower pace than in proceeding decades due to environmental constraints on further dairy production.
In the future, some new players could start challenging the traditional leading dairy exporters as post-Soviet and Asian countries, which have significant potential for development, show significant growth potential.
According to the German dairy research body IFCN, milk production will increase by 304 million tonnes by 2030, and per farm production will increase by 54 percent.
Milk consumption is set to increase by around 16 percent per capita and the average milk yield per cow will rise by 23 percent.
IFCN suggest that south Asia will increase production by 64 percent from the latest figures in 2017 to 2030.
Next on the list, Africa could increase its dairy production by 36 percent, followed by Latin America at 33 percent, Near and Middle East at 27 percent and North America at 26 percent.
Western Europe has a 14 percent capacity for growth.
IFCN also predicts that the number of dairy farms will decrease by 14 million to 104 million by 2030, influenced by supply and demand, political decisions and succession issues.
One of the major surprise forecasts is for Syria to become a major player in dairy export markets in the future.
Ghassan Sayegh, a dairy expert from Lebanon, said Syria has newfound potential with help from financial investment from Russia.
China is also an interesting player and produced 36.55 million tonnes of milk in 2017, which was down 2.1 percent from 2008.
In 2017, China’s total imports of dairy products was 2.45 million tonnes, equivalent to 14.27 million tonnes of raw milk, 4.5 times that of 2008. For China, New Zealand is the most important dairy import source.
About 92 percent of whole milk powder is imported from New Zealand, along with 47 percent of skim milk powder and 86 percent of its butter.
In addition, China imports 55 percent of milk whey powder from the United States and 36 percent of fresh milk from Germany.
China officials expect that by 2027, the proportion of farms there with more than 100 cows will reach 80 percent and the yield per cow per year will average nine tonnes. Output is expected to reach 43.8 million tonnes.
The average annual growth rate of milk production in the next 10 years is expected to be 1.8 percent, which is significantly higher than the average annual growth rate of 0.4 percent in the past decade.
An increase in income for about 300 million middle-class consumers in China is expected to be the main driving force behind an increase in dairy consumption.
It is estimated that China’s per capita dairy consumption will be 40.5 kilograms in 2027, up 22 percent from 2017. At the same time, the total consumption of dairy products is expected to be 63.61 million tonnes, up 25 percent from 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent, which maintains the same rate the country saw over the past 10 years.
