GATT forecasts varied as speakers

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Published: June 23, 1994

SASKATOON (Staff) – Here’s what some of the experts had to say at last week’s conference on the impact of the new General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade:

nWhile the European Union won’t have to make major changes to internal support programs and will still be able to subsidize large volumes of grain exports, significant policy changes were made in the years leading up to the signing of the GATT. The bottom line is Europeans will put less pressure on world cereal markets, said Tim Josling of Stanford University.

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nIn Eastern Europe, crop and livestock production will increase over the next six years and the region will become a net exporter of most agricultural products, said Stefan Tangermann of the University of Gottingen, Germany. Perhaps as much as 10 million tonnes of cereals and one million tonnes of animal products could be exported.

nEast Asia could be the big winner of the new GATT, said Kurt Klein of the University of Lethbridge. Exporters like Canada will have improved access to fast-growing Asian markets, especially for red meats.

  • GATT is just one of many crucial issues that will affect farmers in the next few years, said Australian economist Brian Fisher. Others include long-term economic growth and dietary trends, CAP reform, the emergence of regional trading blocs, environmental issues and developments in the former Soviet Union.

nThe new trade rules should allow Canada to compete again in oilseed markets like North Africa, India and Mexico. Canada has sold mainly into the high-priced North American and Japanese markets, so the new deal won’t do much to boost prices.

nThere is great potential for increased livestock trade. Japan and Korea will buy more beef from North America, as Europe reduces export subsidies. Pork markets will open up in East Asia and Western Europe, said Michael Sands of Sparks Co. Ltd. of Memphis.

  • The new trading rules will put increased pressure on institutions like the Canadian Wheat Board and hog marketing boards, as farmers look for new ways of doing business, said Saskatchewan’s deputy agriculture minister Hartley Furtan.

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