An outbreak of a deadly livestock disease in one of the world’s biggest feed barley importers shouldn’t affect demand for supplies, according to a Canadian Wheat Board market analyst.
Since the outbreak of Rift Valley Fever was identified a month ago in Saudi Arabia and Yemen, at least 187 people have died.
The disease is carried by ruminant livestock and transmitted by mosquitoes or through direct contact.
In late September, Saudi King Fahd ordered all livestock carrying or suspected of carrying the disease to be destroyed, according to wire reports.
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But Don Bonner said it’s hard to estimate the extent of the slaughter program. Saudi feed buyers still seem to be in the market.
Some buyers may be using the disease outbreak as a scare tactic to move prices lower, he said.
“We still feel the export demand will be quite strong,” said Bonner.
The Middle East region is the world’s largest importer of feed barley.
Last year, Saudi Arabia was the wheat board’s second largest feed barley customer, after Japan, accounting for about 160,000 tonnes of sales.
The board’s projected returns for feed barley rose $4 a tonne from last month for a variety of reasons.
Recent estimates of the American corn crop and ending stocks have been smaller than expected, supporting feed markets, said Bonner.
Projected returns for feed wheat are also up by $12 per tonne from last month.
European exporters of feed barley have been restrained, he said, shipping only two million tonnes so far this year, compared to four million tonnes this time last year.
The wheat board recently booked some attractive feed barley sales, said Bonner.
But Australia may have more feed barley to export than usual because of drought in some growing regions.
The quality of the malting barley crop there has not yet been determined, since most regions are just starting harvest, he said.
