When the oil runs out, ruralization will be the dominant social trend of the 21st century.
After the oil peak, the United States will need 40 to 50 million farmers to feed its population, said one author.
It’s a prediction that seems to fly in the face of current agricultural realities, but Richard Heinberg presents evidence for his views.
“Without cheap energy, a lot is going to change,” Heinberg said.
The coming global petroleum shortage, referred to as peak oil, and its effects on society and agriculture were the topic of Heinberg’s speech to the recent National Farmers’ Union annual convention in Saskatoon.
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Peak oil refers to global oil depletion. Oil discoveries are followed by oil extraction, leading eventually to a decline in production.
Heinberg pointed to the history of U.S. oil production as proof of peak oil. American oil discovery reached its peak in 1930, and has been declining ever since. U.S. oil extraction reached its peak 40 years later in 1970, and has been in a steady overall decline.
“That’s peak oil. It’s not theory, it’s history,” Heinberg said.
His concern is that as fewer deposits of the non-renewable resource are discovered, the global oil supply will inevitably go into permanent decline, and its price will become prohibitively expensive.
No industry is more dependent on cheap fossil fuels than modern agriculture. In the U.S., agriculture consumes 17 percent of that country’s oil, more than any other industry, Heinberg said.
Without diesel to fuel tractors or grease to lube joints, modern agriculture will certainly look different. Hybrid crop varieties and their synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, plus the transportation industry to take products to market, are completely dependent on fossil fuel availability, he said.
The implications of peak oil are huge, Heinberg said. Unless society begins to prepare for alternative ways to meet its energy and food requirements, famine could occur in North America.
Without the availability of cheap fuel to transport food, more cultivation will need to happen in cities, he said. Agriculture will also become more labour intensive.
“We’ll also need more people in the countryside growing food because we’ll need more muscle power, more people power.”
He predicted these changes could happen within the next 30 to 40 years.
“(Peak oil) is something we’d heard about, but I don’t think it’s something people think about,” said John Nehlsen, a farmer from Fairview, Alta.
If Heinberg is right, and fossil fuels run out, it will totally change farming, Nehlsen said.
“I think we’d end up going back to farming like our forefathers farmed, and I don’t know if I’m prepared to do that,” he said.
