For election 2004, paint the countryside blue.
Canada’s farmers are overwhelmingly Conservatives according to a public opinion survey published this week by Ipsos-Reid.
The early June survey of 1,000 farmers across the country showed the Conservative party with 60 percent of the voting intentions, followed by Liberals at 23 percent, NDP at seven percent and the Green Party at two percent. In Quebec, the Bloc Québecois hold a significant lead over Liberals and Conservatives.
“Support for the Liberals has dropped nine percentage points from the 2000 election,” said a poll commentary prepared by Ipsos-Reid senior vice-president Curtis Johnson of Winnipeg.
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“The majority of these Liberal votes have gone to the new Conservative party. It would appear that the Liberals can no longer rely on a split right vote to offset traditionally low support from Canadian farmers.”
In a June 14 interview, Johnson said that since the survey was taken June 1-3, more than three weeks before the June 28 vote, there may be vote shifting as farmers listen to the leaders’ debates and other campaign developments.
But he expected little movement.
“I would say this is not soft opinion,” he said. “I don’t expect we’ll see major shifts in voting intentions. There is clearly a mood for change and a lot of anxiety on the farm.”
This week, federal agriculture minister Bob Speller is on a campaign blitz through Western Canada, warning farm and rural voters not to take a gamble on a vote for the Conservatives.
The Ipsos-Reid poll results suggest many farmers do not consider it a gamble at all. They see BSE problems, the farm in-come squeeze and other issues and figure a Conservative government would be most likely to respond.
“Forty-four percent of farmers polled felt that the Conservatives would best be able to address farm issues, followed by 20 percent for the Liberals,” the polling firm reported.
Almost one-quarter of farmers said they didn’t believe any of the parties would be able to address the issues facing the farm sector.
The poll showed farmers believe the BSE crisis and the closed United States border to Canadian cattle are the first issues a new government must tackle. Almost one in four farmers listed “survival of the family farm” as the biggest issue, including the need for better farm income support.
Johnson said many reasons could explain the sharp decline in Liberal fortunes among farmers – economic stress, a fumbled Liberal election campaign, promises from the Conservatives to make agriculture a priority, a general discontent over Liberal spending scandals, the gun registry, the mood for change after 10 years of Liberal government and the generally conservative outlook of farmers.
Whatever the cause for each voter, the combination is a sharp decline of Liberal fortunes in every region and every commodity.
In Alberta, the Conservative-Liberal split is 77-15. In Manitoba, it is 72-21 and in Saskatchewan 63-16 with the NDP down four points to 13 percent. In British Columbia, Liberal support has fallen 14 points from 2000 levels to 20 percent while the Conservatives are at 63 percent. In B.C., the Green Party drew six percent to the NDP’s 11 percent.
The most startling Liberal drop comes in the dairy sector. In 2000, 50 percent of dairy farmers said they voted Liberal. This time, Liberals trail Conservatives 33-42 percent.
Almost the only Liberal bright spot comes from Alberta and Saskatchewan where support is up slightly because of federal help on the BSE file, although still far behind the Conservatives.
“The Liberals have done a good job responding to the issues raised by Alberta farmers and are rewarded with a six point increase in support, climbing to 15 percent of decided voters,” said the polling firm.
