Western Producer Ottawa reporter Barry Wilson is travelling the West reporting on key election issues for prairie farmers. This week, he focuses on Saskatchewan.
SHELLBROOK, Sask. – Every weekday morning, the office of the Pioneer Grain terminal in this town west of Prince Albert fills with local farmers talking about prices and delivery opportunities. 
“Farmers are in a good mood,” says manager Kevin Chilliak.
“It sure is different from last year. Pessimistic farmers make for a long winter. This year, there is lots of optimism.”
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In rural ridings across the Prairies, candidates report that while grain farmers are rushing to finish harvest and have a nervous eye on falling prices, they are buoyed at the prospect of making money on this year’s crops.
“There is real hurt in the livestock sector but their frustration has been drowned out by the fact that grain and oilseed guys are having their second good year in a row,” said University of Saskatchewan agricultural economist Richard Gray.
“Guys have gone from the brink of bankruptcy to being financially solid, from living on credit to using this year’s income to buy next year’s inputs.”
He said it likely means farmers have little appetite for political change.
“Rural Saskatchewan, like the rest of the Prairies, is pretty solidly Conservative, and I don’t think that is going to change,” Gray said.
Randy Hoback, Conservative candidate in the constituency of Prince Albert, listened to Chilliak’s report of optimistic farmers and said he has noticed the same thing while talking with farmers in the riding.
“But I’m also a little concerned about complacency,” he said.
“Guys might decide things are going so good they don’t have to vote. One of our jobs will be to get that vote out.”
The higher returns have also muted discussion about changes the Conservative government, in co-operation with the provinces, has made to the farm safety net system, replacing the Canadian Agricultural Income Stabilization program with a somewhat revised AgriStability program and a new farmer contributory program, AgriInvest, to cover the top end of declining margins.
Liberal agriculture critic Wayne Easter has been warning that the new margin-based program will provide less coverage than the much-maligned CAIS program because the basis for margin calculation is being changed. He has not been able to generate debate about that across the country.
And the new program, described by Gray as largely CAIS with a new name and a few tweaks, will not be tested until next year, long after the election.
“I do get some questions from farmers about how the new program will work, and honestly, I have to tell them I don’t know,” said Alberta Conservative MP Ted Menzies.
“I hope and expect it will be better, but we will see when it is triggered …. But a test is coming, possibly as soon as next year, and we will have to watch to make sure the new program is doing the job.”
Alberta farm leader Humphrey Banack predicted farmers could be testing the new system sooner than government thinks.
The president of Wild Rose Agricultural Producers said high commodity prices are masking the fact that input costs are soaring.
“Commodity prices already have started to fall,” he said. “Input costs will not, or at least not as much. I think we could be facing a cash crunch as early as ’09. We really don’t know how that program will respond.”
In a poll published this week, Winnipeg-based Ipsos Forward Research reported that rising input costs are the most prominent issue on farmers’ minds this autumn.
However, on the ground in the election campaign, Conservative candidates say most farmers are happy with the government performance.
The Ipsos survey says farmer support for the Conservatives is 80 percent in Alberta, 69 percent in Manitoba and 64 percent in Saskatchewan.
“Farmers are telling me they like what we have been doing,” said Saskatchewan Conservative Garry Breitkreuz.
