Item: In week six of the current crop year, ending Sept. 10., the Canadian Grain Commission tallied farmer deliveries of wheat to the system at 408,400 tonnes. Durum that same week stood at 51,900 tonnes. That’s nowhere near the 10-year low of 40,500 tonnes in 1986, but neither is it close to the high of 1.06 million tonnes in 1990.
Item: Canadian exports of wheat as of Sept. 10 were 1.19 million tonnes, down nearly two-thirds from last fall. Durum exports are up by 80 percent.
Item: Visible supplies of wheat at farms, country elevators and terminals are down by 35 percent; durum by the same.
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Item: The Canadian grain transportation system unloaded 1,040 cars at the West Coast in week six, compared to a target of 1,800 cars. Thunder Bay unloaded 641 cars in week six, surpassing its weekly target of 600.
Below capacity
From these statistics, it’s easy to surmise the Canadian grain transportation system isn’t running near its capacity.
But rather than a slowdown caused by external forces like labor problems at ports, the pace is being set by farmers.
Board spokesperson Jim Pietryk said producer deliveries to the board until just before Labor Day were 770,000 tonnes, compared to 2.3 million tonnes last year.
One reason is a delayed harvest. That has been a blessing in many parts of the Prairies where fine late summer weather allowed crops to avoid frost.
The other reason is stocks.
Before the end of the crop year and the increase in freight rates, “farmers swept out their bins,” said Larry Ruud, an analyst with Market Maximizer Inc. in Sherwood Park, Alta.
The numbers bear out his observation. Statistics Canada’s stocks report pegged wheat stocks as of July 31 at 535,000 tonnes, compared to 3.4 million in July 1994.
Pietryk said the board’s weather and crop surveillance unit expected about 70 percent of the cereal crop to be harvested by Sept. 15.
There’s still time for the board to position itself against its competitors. The E.U. is out of the grain export market for another three weeks, the American spring wheat harvest has also been delayed and the Australians won’t start harvesting until November.
But October through January is a peak sales period, Pietryk said, and hopefully deliveries will be back to normal by then.
