Exports dip to 1980 level

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Published: November 21, 2002

Correction: Exports of grains, oilseeds, pulses and special crops from

Western Canada were 25.2 million tonnes in 2001-02 and 30.6 million

tonnes in 2000-01. Incorrect information appeared in a story on page 3

of the Nov. 21 issue.

The Canadian Wheat Board isn’t the only Canadian grain seller with a

bare shelf this year.

Given the devastating effects of drought and poor harvest weather,

export numbers are expected to be down to historically low levels for

most major crops.

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In its most recent report, issued Oct. 24, Agriculture Canada was

forecasting exports of the major western grains, oilseeds, pulses and

special crops would total about 16.7 million tonnes.

That’s 25.2 million tonnes lower than the year before and 30.6 million

tonnes less than two years ago. If the forecast holds true, it will be

only the second time since 1980 that exports have dipped below 20

million tones.

However, department analysts say even a 16.7-million-tonne forecast is

overly optimistic and numbers will be reduced again in the agency’s

next report, slated for release in early December.

For example, wheat market analyst Glenn Lennox said in light of this

fall’s harvest conditions, wheat and durum exports clearly won’t reach

the 9.6 million tonnes forecast in the Oct. 24 report.

“At that time we didn’t know that a big chunk of the crop would stay

out under the snow all winter,” he said. “It’s certainly not surprising

to see those new numbers from the wheat board.”

The board is now forecasting exports of western Canadian wheat and

durum will be around 7.5 million tonnes.

Lennox said since most of the wheat that’s out in the fields this

winter will likely end up going into the feed market next spring, the

department will likely lower its export number and increase its feed

number in the next report.

“We might have the unusual situation where we see a record or

near-record feeding of wheat in a year when production is one of the

smallest on record,” he said.

Exports of most other crops besides wheat and durum are also expected

to be down sharply this year.

For example, private crop forecaster Statcom is projecting canola

exports of two million tonnes, down from 2.5 million last year and 4.9

million two years ago.

But Statcom’s oilseed analyst Nolita Clyde said that number could be

reduced even further.

“The question is how much canola is sitting in the fields and the

quality that’s eventually harvested,” she said. “There’s bound to be

some deterioration.”

She said two customers – Japan and Mexico – will probably account for

all of Canada’s canola exports this year.

Agriculture Canada’s special crops analyst Stan Skrypetz said exports

of pulses and special crops could have a hard time reaching the 2.2

million tonne forecast issued last month, but he didn’t want to

speculate on numbers.

The prospect of even lower exports than had been anticipated a couple

of months ago represents more bad news not only for farmers, but for

companies that make a living hauling and handling export grain,

including elevator firms, railways and vessel operators.

“We’re taking 30 to 40 percent of the tonnes away from the industry,

and that takes 30 to 40 percent of the revenue away,” said Ed Guest of

the Western Grain Elevator Association, which represents Western

Canada’s major grain handling companies.

There will almost certainly be significant layoffs and elevator

closures as the year progresses and grain deliveries dry up, he said.

“No grain company will leave any stone unturned, just as no farmer will

leave any stone unturned, in trying to make the best of a terrible,

terrible year,” he said.

About the author

Adrian Ewins

Saskatoon newsroom

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