Correction: Exports of grains, oilseeds, pulses and special crops from
Western Canada were 25.2 million tonnes in 2001-02 and 30.6 million
tonnes in 2000-01. Incorrect information appeared in a story on page 3
of the Nov. 21 issue.
The Canadian Wheat Board isn’t the only Canadian grain seller with a
bare shelf this year.
Given the devastating effects of drought and poor harvest weather,
export numbers are expected to be down to historically low levels for
most major crops.
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In its most recent report, issued Oct. 24, Agriculture Canada was
forecasting exports of the major western grains, oilseeds, pulses and
special crops would total about 16.7 million tonnes.
That’s 25.2 million tonnes lower than the year before and 30.6 million
tonnes less than two years ago. If the forecast holds true, it will be
only the second time since 1980 that exports have dipped below 20
million tones.
However, department analysts say even a 16.7-million-tonne forecast is
overly optimistic and numbers will be reduced again in the agency’s
next report, slated for release in early December.
For example, wheat market analyst Glenn Lennox said in light of this
fall’s harvest conditions, wheat and durum exports clearly won’t reach
the 9.6 million tonnes forecast in the Oct. 24 report.
“At that time we didn’t know that a big chunk of the crop would stay
out under the snow all winter,” he said. “It’s certainly not surprising
to see those new numbers from the wheat board.”
The board is now forecasting exports of western Canadian wheat and
durum will be around 7.5 million tonnes.
Lennox said since most of the wheat that’s out in the fields this
winter will likely end up going into the feed market next spring, the
department will likely lower its export number and increase its feed
number in the next report.
“We might have the unusual situation where we see a record or
near-record feeding of wheat in a year when production is one of the
smallest on record,” he said.
Exports of most other crops besides wheat and durum are also expected
to be down sharply this year.
For example, private crop forecaster Statcom is projecting canola
exports of two million tonnes, down from 2.5 million last year and 4.9
million two years ago.
But Statcom’s oilseed analyst Nolita Clyde said that number could be
reduced even further.
“The question is how much canola is sitting in the fields and the
quality that’s eventually harvested,” she said. “There’s bound to be
some deterioration.”
She said two customers – Japan and Mexico – will probably account for
all of Canada’s canola exports this year.
Agriculture Canada’s special crops analyst Stan Skrypetz said exports
of pulses and special crops could have a hard time reaching the 2.2
million tonne forecast issued last month, but he didn’t want to
speculate on numbers.
The prospect of even lower exports than had been anticipated a couple
of months ago represents more bad news not only for farmers, but for
companies that make a living hauling and handling export grain,
including elevator firms, railways and vessel operators.
“We’re taking 30 to 40 percent of the tonnes away from the industry,
and that takes 30 to 40 percent of the revenue away,” said Ed Guest of
the Western Grain Elevator Association, which represents Western
Canada’s major grain handling companies.
There will almost certainly be significant layoffs and elevator
closures as the year progresses and grain deliveries dry up, he said.
“No grain company will leave any stone unturned, just as no farmer will
leave any stone unturned, in trying to make the best of a terrible,
terrible year,” he said.