LONDON, U.K. – Maltsters are foaming at the mouth to get access to the world’s second largest beer market.
China produced 155 million hectolitres of beer in 1995, representing about 12 percent of world output and placing it second to the U.S. with its 19 percent share of the market.
With per capita beer consumption in China expected to increase by about 30 percent in the next five years, the market will only get bigger. That would have dollar signs dancing in the eyes of malt exporters, but for the tariff wall that China has erected against malt in order to foster its own domestic industry.
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And that makes industry officials like David Wilkes of the British firm Pauls Malt Ltd. unhappy.
“With an import tariff on malt of 34 percent against three percent for barley, it is hardly surprising that their preference is to import barley and convert this to malt locally,” he told a grain markets conference organized by the International Grains Council.
“This is certainly one trade barrier which needs to be addressed as part of China’s desire to be a full World Trade Organization
participant.”
Arend Heijbroek, a food and agriculture researcher for Rabobank International of the Netherlands, told the conference China will be importing 2.7 million tonnes of malting barley by 2000. This year’s total is expected to be about 1.8 million tonnes.
Barley production has been stagnant in China for the past 20 years but demand for beer is growing rapidly, he said.
Per capita consumption in China is expected to be 17 kilograms annually by 2000, up from 13 kg today and six kg in 1990.
Total consumption will reach 220 million hL in 2000, up 40 percent from 1994, which translates into an additional 1.3 million tonnes of barley.
More drinkers worldwide
Despite problems getting into the Chinese market, Wilkes presented an optimistic outlook for malt exporters, pointing to expectations of continued growth in beer consumption worldwide.
“As this growth is primarily in the developing countries with little or no malting industries of their own, there will be a complementary increase in malt trade,” he said.
Global beer production is expected to reach 1.5 billion hL by 2004, up from 1.25 billion in 1995. That will boost demand for malt to 16.7 million tonnes, a growth rate of 360,000 tonnes annually.
World malt exports were 4.5 million tonnes in 1995, with the European Union leading the way at 2.9 million tonnes, followed by
Canada. The biggest importer is Japan.