WINNIPEG – The grain industry’s vision is looking a little blurry.
Three years ago a group of industry officials set a goal of doubling Canada’s grain exporting and processing capacity by 2005.
But now that industry and government officials have attached some numbers to that so-called grain industry vision statement, the target looks to be virtually unattainable.
“It’s a stretch goal and the fact is we may not meet it,” said Barbara Isman, a Cargill Ltd. vice-president and member of an industry committee that spent the past two years trying to figure out what must be done to get there.
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But, she told delegates attending a Canada Grains Council meeting, whether or not the goal can be met, it’s crucial that everyone in the industry work together in that direction.
And she said the issue is more urgent than some might think.
“While we haven’t tossed out the possibility that we can still double, we have a very pressing problem,”she said. “We’re not going to have enough raw product to meet all of the investment that’s out there.”
Agriculture Canada economists calculated that the value of Western Canada’s grain exporting and processing industry in 1994, when the target was set, was $12 billion.
So doubling that in a decade would mean hitting $24 billion by 2005.
But Robert McGregor, an analyst with Agriculture Canada, told grain industry delegates that even assuming best-case scenarios in crop yields and prices, grain exports, livestock expansion and value-added processing, the highest number his department can come up with is $18.5 billion.
“The size of the gap remains large … and it’s not going to be easy to achieve even with aggressive growth strategies,” he told delegates. “It may be impossible.”
Manitoba farmer Owen McAuley, a member of the industry committee that has been looking at the target, said meeting the goal would create huge policy pressures in some extremely controversial areas, like deregulation, transportation, marketing, land use, research funding and trade.
