BONN, Germany (Reuters) — National plans for limiting greenhouse gas emissions fall short of tough action needed to slow climate change under an expected United Nations agreement, European researchers said last week.
They said the plans submitted to the UN by about 50 countries representing 70 percent of world emissions are too weak to keep temperatures below an agreed ceiling of 2 C above pre-industrial times needed to avoid the worst effects of warming.
The Climate Action Tracker, produced by four European research organizations, assessed 15 major nations’ strategies for the period beyond 2020 and found seven were “inadequate,” including Japan, Australia and Canada.
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Six were “medium,” including those submitted by top emitters China, the United States and the European Union.
Only Ethiopia and Morocco put forward plans that were rated “sufficient” contributions to limit warming to 2 C.
The national plans are meant to be the building blocks of an accord that is expected to be reached at a Nov. 30-Dec. 11 summit in Paris. Many countries, including India, have not yet submitted plans.
“It is clear that if the Paris meeting locks in present climate commitments for 2030, holding warming below 2 C could essentially become unfeasible, and 1.5 C beyond reach,” said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics.
Senior government officials met in Bonn recently for the second-to-last session of talks before Paris as they struggled to cut an unwieldy draft 83-page text.
Almost 200 governments agreed in 2010 that a 2 C rise was the maximum allowable to avert the heaviest impact of climate change, including floods, droughts and rising sea levels. About 100 developing nations favour a tougher ceiling of 1.5 degrees.
Tony de Brum, foreign minister of the Marshall Islands, said weak national plans would have disastrous impacts on people living in low-lying islands because of a rise in sea levels.
“Our islands cannot survive in a world in which the temperature rises more than 1.5 C,” he said in a speech in Fiji.
David Waskow of the World Resources Institute think-tank, said there were some recent encouraging signs for stronger action, such as a co-operation agreement reached between Brazil and Germany last month.
He said the Paris accord should include a mechanism to oblige nations to review their pledges at regular intervals with a view to strengthening them.
