& Reuters News Agency
The Pacific Ocean climate system known as El Nino will bring a milder
than normal winter to most of Canada, but little relief for parched
prairie fields, says Environment Canada.
Two years of hot, dry summers shrivelled crop production in much of
Western Canada, and rain and frost this fall have prolonged the
harvest, damaging what little crop is left, said David Phillips, a
climatologist with Environment Canada.
“On the Prairies, it was in fact the worst growing season ever,”
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Phillips said. “You could not have ordered worse weather for farmers on
the Prairies.”
Farmers may face another tough spring because of El Nino, since they
usually rely on melting snow for 30 percent of the moisture they need
to plant crops.
In an El Nino winter, temperatures across the southern Prairies
typically increase by two degrees. That means there are more days where
the temperature lingers near zero and results in higher than usual snow
melt and evaporation. Translation: By spring, there could be
significantly less runoff and lower soil moisture.
It’s not all bad news. Neil Wagstaff, a farmer from Elnora, Alta., said
a warmer than normal winter could help ranchers who have struggled to
find enough hay for their cattle this year.
“A mild winter has some positive aspects to it, just for survival,”
Wagstaff said, explaining that cattle need more feed during severe cold.
El Nino systems affect North American weather every few years when
trade winds near the equator slow down or reverse direction. The winds
heat water off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, changing weather patterns
through most of the Americas. Systems that typically affect the
southern Prairies will shift north; instead, this area can expect to
experience systems that would normally occur in the northern and
central United States.
“El Nino will mean major rain for South America all the way up into
southern California,” said Bob Cormier, an Environment Canada
climatologist. “But here on the Prairies, it will probably be drier
than normal as the snow pack melts. It’s not fair, I know.
“Nothing’s fair in love, war and weather,” Cormier said.
Environment Canada expects Canadians should feel the effects of El Nino
by December.
Climatologists said El Nino systems have become stronger and more
frequent over the past 30 years. The last El Nino winter was in
1997-98, when southern Quebec and Ontario were paralyzed by an ice
storm in January 1998. Some suspect increasing levels of greenhouse
gases as the reason for the changing pattern.
Environment Canada will update its El Nino forecast on Dec. 1. For more
information on El Nino, visit www.producer.com and click on news links.
