OTTAWA – Agriculture minister Ralph Goodale has signalled that negotiations with the Americans are unlikely to head off an investigation of Canadian durum wheat imports by U.S. trade authorities this month.
But he said a January launch of a U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) investigation would not be a big deal.
“I would obviously like to be able to get all those issues settled by that date but I don’t think we should be necessarily cornered by that date,” he told reporters in late December. “That (an ITC investigation) is only the beginning of a process that could take some considerable time to run its course.”
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Deadline approaching
He has until Jan. 16 to convince U.S. agriculture secretary Mike Espy that increased exports of durum to American pasta mills are not because of unfair Canadian Wheat Board selling or pricing practices.
If not, president Bill Clinton has promised he will turn the issue over to the ITC for an investigation. That could lead to import quotas if Canada is found to be dumping durum or in other ways using unfair trade practices to gain a share of the American market.
Little progress has been made in two earlier meetings and Goodale said the two will try once more in early January.
Meanwhile, an Ottawa-based trade consultant says the outcome of the dispute is uncertain because the American action is being driven by political pressure rather than trade reality.
Gordon Ritchie of the consulting firm Strategico noted in a year-end report that an earlier free trade panel already has exonerated board export practices.
“The fact that the Canadian practices have already been determined to be fully compatible with the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement will not deter the protectionists,” Ritchie said. “…If the administration continues to give ground under pressure, the dispute could become very serious indeed, disrupting not only cross-border trade but exports to other traditional markets.”
Ritchie, one of the chief Canadian negotiators for the Canada-U.S. free trade agreement and a strong defender of the deal, said Clinton’s promise to fight against durum imports as part of his effort to win congressional support for the North American free trade deal has created a political rationale for the attack on durum imports.
He called the Americans “sore losers” in trade issues; even when they lose disputes, they try to drag out the process as long as they can.
“The Americans have proved to be sore losers when they are forced to play fair,” he said.
