Lack of soil moisture may reduce rapeseed planting by 40 percent, which would be the lowest acres in 10 years
LONDON, U.K. (Reuters) — Ukrainian farmers find themselves in a similar situation to last year: soils are dry.
Dryness does not yet pose a risk to yields, but seeded area could take a beating and noticeably reduce winter crop production in Ukraine in 2016.
There were concerns in Ukraine and Russia one year ago over seeding into such dry conditions for the 2015 harvest, though for Ukraine, the situation may be worse this year.
Soil moisture in Ukraine built back up to near or above average levels by April for the start of spring seeding. Now in October, as farmers look to wrap up winter seeding, soils are among the driest in the last 30 years.
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Soil moisture in Ukraine’s wheat areas was 11 percent below the 20-year average in September of last year. This year it was 20 percent below normal following a nearly bone-dry August.
Recent conditions exhibit marked similarities to those during the seeding of the 2010 and 2012 harvested crops. The wheat harvested area in 2012 was at least 10 percent below recent averages, and wheat yield in both years fell at least 15 percent below trend values.
If there is any silver lining to this year’s weather, September was among the warmest in the past 30 years. This not only allows farmers to get out into their fields, but it also speeds up the development of newly seeded crops before they enter winter dormancy.
Rapeseed was the first victim of the dry soil because it is first to be seeded when the winter campaign begins in August. Area suffered last year based on poor seeding conditions, so it is not surprising to hear of even more problems this year.
Dry conditions during seeding last year cut harvested area by 17 percent from the previous year to 1.7 million acres.
Ukraine’s agriculture minister said last month that rapeseed area could be reduced by up to 40 percent of the originally planned two million acres this year. If realized, area under rapeseed for the 2016 crop would be the smallest in 10 years.
As of Oct. 8, the ministry reported that 1.5 million acres had been planted, but the percentage of completion is unclear. The delayed rapeseed seeding campaign concluded Oct. 10 last year, which indicated that this year’s area may not be likely to increase much from here on out.
Wheat and barley seeding are also lagging last year’s pace. Only half the amount of barley has been seeded compared to last year at this time and almost 2.5 million acres less of wheat.
It appears unlikely that Ukraine could match last year’s winter grain area because conditions have not improved and the clock is ticking. Ukraine’s state weather agency recently warned that the winter grain seeded area could fall by up to 30 percent in favour of spring crops.
Farmers are unlikely to favour wheat or barley next spring because they yield less than their winter counterparts and are less profitable than corn and sunflowers.
If there really is a decent drop in higher-yielding winter grain area, it could surely remove a salient portion of total production, and that is before considering any potential yield impacts from spring weather.
Russia’s winter seeding campaign was 85 percent complete as of Oct. 9, with a similar pace and target area to last year. However, problems occurred early on.
Soil was near-record dry in western Russia during seeding a year ago, and then cold temperatures persisted for a few weeks after, slowing the plants’ initial growth.
By the end of the year, the Russian agriculture minister had reported that up to 30 percent of winter crops were in poor condition.
Soil moisture is still well below average in western Russia this year, although it is 15 to 30 percent wetter than last year. No significant impacts to winter grain area have been reported.
The SovEcon consultancy recently reported that dry seeding conditions could reduce the area under winter crops by up to 1.1 million acres, which is less than one percent of last year’s total crop area.
The dry conditions do not directly threaten the yields of next year’s crop, but they place more pressure on winter and spring weather to be favourable.
Despite the early issues with dryness and plant health last year, Ukraine and much of Russia pulled through a fairly mild winter. And although not a deluge, the spring provided timely rainfall and lifted the 2015 wheat crops in both countries above expectations.
Ukraine would hope to avoid what happened in 2010 and 2012. Both years turned far too warm in spring and summer, and in 2010 the soil was waterlogged following enormous amounts of snowfall.
However, if the upcoming winter is able to mimic the previous two, Black Sea winter grains will have successfully passed their first checkpoint.
