The Canadian Wheat Board expects to export more grain from the Prairies in 2005-06.
The board has set its export target for wheat, durum and barley at 17 to 18 million tonnes for the crop year beginning Aug. 1, which board president Adrian Measner said is up two million tonnes from the past year.
“That’s partly due to production levels, but also the fact that farmers chose to carry a larger quantity of wheat and barley into the current crop year,” Measner said during an Aug. 4 news conference.
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At least a quarter of Manitoba’s cultivated acres will not yield a crop this year. Wet conditions, especially on the east side of the province, prevented farmers from seeding about 1.5 million acres this spring, and additional rain after planting drowned or washed out one million acres more.
However, prairie grain production this year could still be the second highest in five years because of good production outlooks for Saskatchewan and Alberta.
The CWB forecasts that this year’s production will include 22.7 million tonnes of wheat, 5.1 million tonnes of durum and 12.3 million tonnes of barley.
It also expects that the quality will be better than last year, when less than a third of the western red spring wheat graded No. 1 or 2.
Bruce Burnett, the wheat board’s director of weather and crop surveillance, said there are concerns this year about quality in the eastern Prairies, where disease flourished under moist conditions.
However, an average quality crop is expected in the western Prairies, he said, provided there are reasonable harvesting conditions.
The board expects China to remain its largest export customer for wheat and malting barley in 2005-06.
In the year just ended, China bought 2.2 million tonnes of wheat. One of the advantages with China is its growing appetite for higher quality wheat. It also imported 700,000 tonnes of malting barley from the Prairies last year and the board signed a new agreement with China in January for one million tonnes of malting barley in 2005-06.
Exports of hard red wheat to the United States have slowed to a trickle because of import tariffs. The removal of the tariff on durum enabled the CWB to export 400,000 tonnes of that grain across the border in 2004-05.
Algeria is typically the wheat board’s most important export customer for durum. However, Algeria had good production years and Italy moved to the forefront among offshore buyers of prairie durum, Measner said.
The CWB established two feed barley pools in 2004-05. There was a small signup for the first pool but the second pool attracted between 350,000 and 400,000 tonnes. Part of that was moved in the past crop year and the board expects to sell the rest in 2005-06.
“There will be strong feed barley movement in the first part of this crop year,” Measner said. “A lot of that is driven by the fact the Black Sea suppliers have not come on stream yet. That’s provided some good marketing opportunities and we’re taking advantage of those opportunities.”
Although feed barley is selling for good prices overseas, Measner said it is difficult to predict the outcome for this crop year because it depends largely on production in the Black Sea
region.
The crop there is now being harvested, but it will be about a month before exports begin.
Global wheat production, estimated at 606 million tonnes, will be down 18 million tonnes from last year but still above the five-year average, according to the CWB.
Global durum production for this crop year is forecast at 34 million tonnes, more than seven million tonnes below last year but still close to the five-year average, Measner said.
Global barley production is projected to be 134.8 million tonnes, which is down from last year and also below the five-year average.
“In all cases, consumption will outpace production, so stocks will tighten somewhat in ’05-’06,” Measner said. While it may not have a major impact on prices, he said it should help stabilize them.
With the anticipation of greater volumes of grain exports in 2005-06, the CWB already has been in discussions with railway companies about how to ensure sufficient capacity to move the grain to port, Measner said.
There were some difficulties with capacity last year, he added, which forced the board to delay some export shipments.
