With support from rural voters and farming areas, Canadians elected Conservative Stephen Harper as their 22 prime minister Jan. 23, albeit with a minority.
The 46-year-old Calgary MP led the Conservatives to 124 seats in the House of Commons, 21 more than the Liberals but 31 short of a majority. The NDP climbed 10 seats to 29 but were once again shut out of Saskatchewan.
The Bloc Québecois, expecting an historic vote, saw their seats fall to 51 and their Quebec vote erode to 42 percent in the face of a Conservative surge that captured 10 Quebec seats.
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Harper, when he is sworn into office in early February, will be the first western-based prime minister since Joe Clark in 1979 and the first Calgary-based prime minister since R.B. Bennett in 1930. He immediately told westerners they have a place inside official Ottawa.
“The West has wanted in,” Harper told a victory rally in Calgary Jan. 23. “The West is in.”
The election, which threw the Liberals out after more than 12 years of government and just two years after Paul Martin took power, created a Parliament where the separatist Bloc Québecois were weakened but still have the balance of power.
It saw agriculture minister Andy Mitchell narrowly defeated in his Ontario riding, former minister Bob Speller decisively defeated, deputy prime minister Anne McLellan lose and Martin announcing he soon will step down as Liberal leader.
The minority status of the government also had observers suggesting the Conservatives would not be able to carry out many of their agricultural proposals, including ending the Canadian Wheat Board monopoly.
“I think this really is a mandate not to be Liberal rather than a mandate to do radical things,” Roger Epp of Augustana University College in Camrose, Alta. “I just don’t see the Conservatives having a mandate to do anything radical.”
At the University of Saskatchewan, agricultural economist Hartley Furtan said the restraints of a minority Parliament will limit the ability of the Conservatives to move on the “contentious files” like wheat board reforms.
“I just think they will be terribly restrained so I don’t see any radical moves by them on agriculture,” he said.
Still, farm leaders said the Conservatives have made extensive promises on agriculture and will be expected to perform.
And Winnipeg-based Ipsos-Reid pollster Curtis Johnson said it will be important for the Conservatives to show their appreciation for rural support by making significant gestures including the appointment of a prestigious agriculture minister and a promise to deal quickly with commitments to redesign and enrich farm safety nets.
“I really believe there will have to be an indication quickly,” Johnson said.
A new agriculture minister, as part of the Harper cabinet, is expected to be unveiled in early February.
Required reading for the next federal agriculture minister should be the headlines about BSE and the critique of campaign promises by Ontario farm leader Ron Bonnett.
On election day Jan. 23, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency announced another case of BSE in an Alberta cow. The new government will have to manage the international and consumer fallout.
In mid-campaign, Ontario Federation of Agriculture president Bonnett complained that no party was offering enough farm support.
The new Conservative agriculture minister will face a continuing farm income crisis and farmer expectations that the present farm support system will be redesigned.
“I think they have to make some gesture that indicates significant changes in the system and in the treatment of farmers,” Furtan said election night. “There are expectations. Farmers are expecting action.”
Canadian Federation of Agriculture president Bob Friesen said his lobby group is anxious to work with the new Conservative government. “They clearly made some interesting promises during the election and we will be talking to them about making sure that farmers are involved in any planning they do. We have a Canadian farm bill plan and we will be looking for support for that.”
Grain Growers of Canada president Jim Smolik, a producer from Dawson Creek, British Columbia, said in an interview the new government will have to quickly move on the farm income issue and trade talks in Geneva.
He said a promise during the campaign by agriculture critic Diane Finley that a Conservative government would recognize and compensate for trade injury was an important commitment.
“Of course, a new government will have a lot of things on its plate and it will be up to us to make sure they understand our points and why,” he said.
