Southwestern Ontario, already one of Canada’s agricultural production powerhouses, likely will become even more productive as the effects of climate change kick in, an Agriculture Canada scientist predicts.
Sam Gameda, a department researcher, told the Senate agriculture committee April 3 that climate change models suggest a sharp expansion in the growing season and possibly more rainfall in the region, which already boasts some of the best growing conditions and soil in the country.
“I think there is a real potential for increased yields and increased production,” he told senators.
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He said by the last decades of the century, the southern Ontario growing season that now averages between 180 and 225 days will stretch to between 210 and 270 days.
Along with fellow researchers Gilles Bélanger and Andy Bootsma, Gameda offered the committee a mixed review of the expected impact of global warming on agriculture in Eastern and Atlantic Canada.
There will be some good effects, they said, including more heat units, longer growing seasons and increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to help plants grow.
Bélanger said it is possible that forage producers who now get two or three cuts a year will add an additional harvest.
Potato producers will find higher yields. The areas capable of growing fruit will expand.
However, milder winters and less snow will increase the chances of winterkill and there will be a greater likelihood of damaging rain and ice storms in winter, they said.
Warmer temperatures also will increase the proliferation of pests.
“In all of these areas, there will be some benefits and some increased risks,” Bélanger said.
But because the changes will happen gradually, farmers and scientists should be able to adjust with new farming methods and new varieties more suited to longer growing seasons, more heat and in some cases less rain, said the scientists.
However, there will be increased weather volatility and a greater likelihood of weather disasters, like heavy damaging rains or droughts.
Senator Laurier LaPierre worried that Canadians are not hearing balanced projections on the impact of climate change and are becoming frightened and unwilling to contemplate what needs to be done.
“I wonder if we are just scaring people to death, turning them off,” he said.
Bootsma said balanced communication is important.
“There will be an upside and a downside and people should know that.”
However, he said he disagreed with skeptics who argue that global warming is a myth.
When asked if governments should be doing more research on the potential effects of climate change, the recently retired Agriculture Canada researcher said research into whether warming is taking place has been strong, but too little money is being spent on studies of possible effects and adaptation strategies.
The Senate agriculture committee is conducting cross-country hearings into global warming implications for farming and forestry sectors.
