Spring wheat and chickpeas are expected to provide the highest return over operating costs per acre in 2001-2002, says Agriculture Canada.
In its March 30 Bi-Weekly Bulletin, the department looked at crop budgets put out by the agriculture departments of the three prairie provinces.
Those budgets show that canola and oats will provide the lowest returns after operating costs.
Canola fares poorly because of weak oilseed prices and higher costs for seed, fertilizer and chemicals.
Expected high prices for chickpeas make that crop look attractive. But the availability of seed might be a limiting factor in acreage.
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With this information in mind, Agriculture Canada has forecast a shift to grains and pulse crops this spring.
The forecast is a prelude to the March seeding survey results that will be released April 24.
“Area seeded in Western Canada is forecast to shift into spring wheat, coarse grains, flaxseed and some special crops due to higher expected relative net returns, with areas of canola and summerfallow expected to decline,” the forecast said.
It expects barley acreage will increase slightly despite expected poor returns for feed. That’s because domestic and export demand are expected to be strong, farmers like barley as a cash crop and malting barley returns are expected to be relatively good but not as strong as this year.
“The premium for malting barley over feed barley is forecast to decline (due) to increased supplies of malting barley in the major exporting countries,” the department said.
“The premium for two-row malting barley over six-row is expected to decrease slightly.”
While canola prices and acreage are expected to be down, the department did increase the oilseed’s price outlook slightly due to expectations of lower stocks by the end of 2001-2002. While huge soybean crops in South America and the United States are depressing oilseed markets generally, other world oilseed crops, such as canola and sunflower, are getting smaller.
Agriculture Canada increased its price outlook for canola in 2001-2002 to $250-$290 per tonne (in-store Vancouver), up $10 per tonne from the March 5 outlook.
The full Agriculture Canada report is available at www.agr.ca/policy/winn/biweekly/English/index2e.htm.
