SYDNEY, Australia (Reuters) – Australia’s 2009-10 wheat harvest rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier, making it the best harvest in four years in the world’s fourth largest exporter of the grain and adding to already ample global stocks.
The government’s commodity forecaster on Feb. 16 estimated the harvest at 21.656 million tonnes, down from a December estimate of 21.993 million tonnes as extreme heat followed by heavy rain late last year affected grain quality and yield.
The latest figure, from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) February crop report, was progressively reduced from forecasts as high as 23.5 million tonnes early in the growing season.
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ABARE is scheduled to make its first forecast of Australia’s 2010-11 crop on March 2 at its annual outlook conference, with private forecasters suggesting a smaller crop is likely as farmers take account of lower prices and rising input costs for items such as fertilizer and fuel.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia commodity strategist Luke Mathews said 14 to 15.5 million tonnes of the 2009-10 crop could be exported, although markets remain tough because of ample global stocks after two years of massive northern hemisphere crops.
Bumper crops were planted after wheat prices hit record levels in February 2008 above $13 per bushel. Chicago Board of Trade prices have since dropped to below $5 per bushel in response to higher production, with cash prices even lower.
Western Australia, the country’s top grain exporting state harvested about 8.2 million tonnes of wheat, slightly higher than last season’s production, mainly due to a larger area sown to wheat.
The state exports more than 90 percent of its wheat, mostly to Indonesia.
ABARE said Australia’s total winter harvest, including crops such as barley and canola, was estimated to have jumped four percent in 2009-10 from a year earlier to 35.2 million tonnes.
It said barley output in 2009-10 was 8.048 million tonnes compared to 7.669 million tonnes a year earlier and a five-year average of 7.804 million tonnes.
