Canada may face tough opposition as talks drag

TORONTO – Negotiator Gilles Gauthier has bad news for Canadian farmers and politicians who believe World Trade Organization proposals go too far in undermining supply management and the Canadian Wheat Board – it is only going to get worse.Gauthier told a May 15 workshop organized by the Canadian Agricultural Trade Policy and Competitiveness Research Network that stalled WTO talks have no realistic chance of moving forward before 2011 despite commitments at various international meetings to aim for a 2010 conclusion to the eight-year-old negotiation.“The prevailing view is that there is no window until next year,” he said.And if negotiating countries, particularly the United States, do decide to re-engage next year, there will be demands that all countries offer more concessions, including Canada.“The pervasive line of thought is that the July 2008 package won’t do it,” Gauthier said. “We need something more. The general sentiment is that the level of ambition cannot go down, it can only go up.”He said such a position would create difficulties for Canadian negotiators because of agricultural sensitivities.“That will put the spotlight on us.”The working text now on the negotiating table in Geneva includes proposals to end the wheat board monopoly by 2013 and reduce supply management over-quota tariffs by close to 25 percent, as well as sharply increase the amount of the Canadian supply managed market that is available to imports.Those provisions have led critics, including the opposition majority on the House of Commons agriculture committee, to demand that Canada announce it will not sign a WTO deal that contains those concessions.Gauthier said the United States will demand more market access concessions from developing countries if it decides to step up its involvement in the talks.In turn, developing countries will demand more concessions and support cuts from developed countries.He said no country indicated it wanted to end the process during a recent “stocktaking” in Geneva, despite the almost-two-year-old stalemate.Gauthier told the meeting that Canada-European Union free trade talks continue at a fast pace by trade negotiating standards, and the plan is to decide by the end of the year whether there is a chance for a deal next year. If not, both countries have agreed to end the talks.He said agriculture is a high priority for both sides, and Canadian negotiators hope to secure significantly increased access for Canadian beef into a market that has been largely closed because of a European rejection of hormone-treated beef.However, Gauthier said Canadian cattle industry leaders should set aside any hopes that the EU will agree to drop its hormone ban.Instead, he said the goal is to negotiate a big enough quota for sales of Canadian beef into Europe that it would be worth the industry’s while to create a segregation system allowing it to guarantee a hormone-free supply.Dave Stewart, executive director of the Ontario Cattlemen’s Association, said after the meeting that Ontario producers see a potential opening of EU quota as an opportunity.Dedicated feedlots could handle hormone-free cattle and one or more of four packing plants in the province could run lines dedicated to slaughtering hormone-free beef.Stewart said one 25,000 head herd in Western Canada already has been segregated and is fed as hormone free.“Talking to our members, they see this as something the Ontario industry could really take advantage of.”However, Crina Viju of Ottawa’s Carleton University argued that Canada’s agriculture industry should not expect much from the Canada-EU negotiation. She said concessions are more likely to come from broader negotiations through the WTO.