Winter temperatures in Alberta will be about two degrees colder than normal this year and snowfall will be near or slightly below normal, according to the latest Old Farmer’s Almanac.
The 2007 Canadian edition of the handbook of quirky tales, zodiac charts and a complete weather forecast for the next year is calling for a mixed bag of highs and lows across the Prairies.
The latest almanac calls for above normal precipitation in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and says the coldest temperatures will occur in early and mid-December, early and late January and early and mid to late February.
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The heaviest snowfalls will occur in mid-December, late January and early to mid-February.
The almanac has been publishing weather forecasts since 1792 and has a “secret formula” devised by its founder, who believed sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the sun’s surface, influence the weather.
The long-range forecast from Environment Canada has a different take on this winter’s weather.
“It’s going to be interesting. We’re saying the opposite of what the Farmer’s Almanac does,” said David Phillips, senior meteorologist with Environment Canada. “We still don’t think they have any skills to their forecast.”
The last time winter temperatures were two degrees below normal was in 1995-96, he said.
“We just haven’t had many winters where it’s been colder than normal.”
The past year was the third warmest in Canada in 60 years of record keeping. Phillips said it was the second warmest fall, the warmest winter, the warmest spring and now the second warmest summer.
“Although it was dry, people are still relishing the kind of summers we had on the Prairies,” he said.
Environment Canada predicted that Septemberwould be warmer than normal, except for the recent days of cool, wet weather. Everywhere on the Prairies temperatures have been about two degrees warmer than normal.
“The flavour or personality of October will be warmer than normal,” he said.
For the core winter months of December, January and February, Phillips said his department predicts weather that is warmer than normal.
During that same time, it predicts that precipitation will be lower than normal in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan and near normal in the other prairie grain growing areas.
“Our winter forecast – it’s going to be warmer than normal across the Prairies, unlike the Farmer’s Almanac.”
Phillips believes Environment Canada’s computer and staff are calling for a warmer than normal winter partly because there is an El Nino, a warm pool of water on the equator that plays havoc with the weather.
“What we can tell people when you look at the Prairies in the last 30 years, there have been 10 El Ninos. When you look at the temperature conditions during those El Nino years, nine out of the 10 were warmer than normal. That’s almost money in the bank. I’d bet my farm or my fishing fleet on that.”
