SASKATOON – U.S. president Bill Clinton will get a mixed message when he receives the International Trade Commission’s report on Canadian wheat imports July 15.
Three of the six ITC commissioners will tell the president imports of Canadian wheat and durum should be restricted because they are causing “material interference” with U.S. farm programs. Two of them want a limit of around 900,000 tonnes a year, about three times the 10-year average but well below this crop year’s expected total of around three million tonnes.
The other three commissioners will tell the president Canadian imports have had just “a small adverse impact” on wheat deficiency payments. But in last week’s public announcement, they declined to characterize it as material interference, which is the test that must be applied before sanctions could be imposed under U.S. trade law.
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U.S. wheat industry lobbyists and wheat-growing state politicians wasted no time in claiming victory and urging immediate action: “Today’s decision makes it clear that the commissioners believe Canadian wheat imports are causing serious problems for American farmers and the communities that depend upon them,” said Montana senator Max Baucus (Dem). “It is time for the administration to act.”
But Canadian officials said the issue is far from settled and the lack of unanimity in the report is encouraging.
No consensus
“It’s clear there is no consensus on ITC about the degree of problem, if there is one, or the amount of remedy to impose in the circumstances,” said agriculture minister Ralph Goodale.
And he repeated threats of retaliatory action if the U.S. takes what Canada considers to be unjustified or punitive action.
Brian Stacey of the Canadian Wheat Board said the panel found no conclusive evidence that Canadian wheat imports have damaged U.S. farm programs.
“The president is going to have a very difficult decision based on the different messages he’s getting from the ITC,” he said, adding the board hopes “saner heads will prevail” and a trade war can be averted.
Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association official Blair Rutter said the ITC report is disappointing, but it’s not automatic that Clinton will impose quotas.
The ITC looked at a very narrow issue of whether Canadian wheat has interfered with farm programs. The president must look at the broader picture.
“He has to take into account the impact on processors down there, the impact on the U.S. consumer and even the way this would be viewed in the international arena,” said Rutter.
